Event
According to industry information, the prices of ODB-2 and m-aminophenol have risen to a large extent recently, of which ODB-2 has risen from 100000 / ton in the middle of last year to more than 500000 / ton at present, and the price of m-aminophenol has risen from 70,000 yuan / ton in the middle of last year to about 120000 / ton at present.
Brief comment
One-chain three-body business pattern, the leader of the whole industry of thermosensitive materials
With "m-amino" products as the mother core, the company extends downward to produce dyes and pharmaceutical intermediates such as "2pyrine 5 acid", "m-hydroxyl", "m-aminophenol" and other dyes and pharmaceutical intermediates, forming a "one-chain three-body" business pattern, and the m-aminophenol downstream project ODB-2 fully reached production in 2012, forming the whole industry chain of m-amino-m-aminobenzenesulfonate-m-aminophenol-ODB-2 heat-sensitive materials. Among them, the production capacity of m-amino group, 2pyrinic acid and m-hydroxyl group ranks first in the world, while the output of m-aminophenol and ODB-2 also ranks the leading level in the world.
Environmental protection is becoming stricter-"other arsenic, my honey"
The company's main intermediates are benzene intermediates, and the industrial wastewater containing aniline is one of the most difficult to treat in the industrial field, with high emissions and difficult to deal with. Competitors are in key treatment cities such as Hebei and Shandong, and various product competitors are affected by environmental protection. Most of the foreign production capacity of ODB-2 has been cleared, and the domestic production enterprises are mainly Kang Aite, Fukang, Jianxin and Kemilin. Among them, Kang Aite and Ke Meilin were shut down, and less than 50% of Fukang started work, and the company has continued to invest in the field of environmental protection for many years, and under the background that competitors have been affected, the production capacity has maintained a full capacity, but the current global output is still less than 3000 tons, while the global annual demand is 6000-7000 tons. The supply shortage will exist for a long time, and the company is expected to benefit from stricter environmental protection and higher profits for a long time.
Strong technical barriers, few supply enterprises and high flexibility of products
The company's main products ODB-2, m-aminophenol, m-hydroxyl and other synthetic processes have higher technical requirements for isomer synthesis and product purification, which determines that the products have high technical barriers; each product supply enterprise is very few, there are no more than 5 ODB-2 global supply enterprises, 2 main domestic suppliers of m-aminophenol and 3 main domestic suppliers of m-hydroxyl groups. Under the restriction of competitors, the company has great flexibility. The company has a production capacity of 16000 tons of m-amino group, 9000 tons of 2pyrinic acid, 4600 tons of m-hydroxyl group, 2000 tons of m-aminophenol and 1000 tons of ODB-2, among which the output of ODB-2, m-aminophenol and m-hydroxyl has reached the leading level in China and even in the world. For every 100000 / ton increase in ODB-2, the company's EPS thickens by 0.13 yuan, and the price of m-aminophenol increases by 100000 / ton. The thickness of EPS is 0.20 yuan, which has strong product elasticity.
It is estimated that the company's 2017-2019EPS is 0.16,0.82,1.21 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 54, X, 11x, 7X, giving a buy rating.
