Expect a strong FY17 results on March 23rd
Global luxury hotel chains reported strong 2H17 China RevPAR with growthaccelerating from mid-to-low single-digityoy in 1H17 to mid-to-high single-digityoy in 2H17. For Shangri-la, currency turned from a drag in 1H17 to a boost in2H17. As such, we expect Shangri-la's FY17 recurring net profits to recover toUS$180m (+ 30% yoy). For 2018, we see margin expansion as stronger businesstravels lift luxury room rates in Tier 1 cities while efficiency initiatives keep costsrelatively flat. We thus think 2018 EBITDA margin can expand 4ppts to 30% pushing EBITDA up 30% on back of a 7% group RevPAR growth assumption. Lift2018-19 EBITDA by 8%. Reiterate Buy with a new TP of HK$22 for 26% upside.
Peers saw China RevPAR growth accelerated in 2H17
Global hotel chains have reported strong demand recovery for luxury hotels inChina, with RevPAR growth accelerated from low-to-mid single-digit yoy in 1H17to mid-to-high single-digit yoy in 2H17. Some even saw double-digit yoy growthin 2H17.
InterContinental (IHG.L, Hold, GBP4490)-Greater China cFX RevPARgrowth accelerated from 4.1% yoy in 1H17 to 7.6% yoy in 2H17. Inparticular, mainland China cFX RevPAR growth sharply accelerated from4.7% yoy in 1H17 to 8.0% yoy in 2H17.
Marriott (MAR.OQ, Hold, USD135.7)-Greater China (constant US$) RevPAR growth accelerated from 6.9% yoy in 1H17 to 9.9% yoy in 2H17.
For 2018, mgmt expects Greater China to lead growth in the Asia-Pacificregion.
Hilton (HLT.N, Buy, USD78.2)-2H17 Greater China RevPAR + 11% yoy,outgrown Asia-Pacific region (+ 8% yoy). For 2018, mgmt expects ChinaRevPAR growth to be sustained at 6-7 yoy
2017 results preview: China hotels likely returned to profitability
On back of the currency swing, we estimate Shangri-la's GroupRevPAR growthaccelerated from 0% yoy in 1H17 to 8% yoy in 2H17, bringing full-year GroupRevPAR growth to 3%. In 2017, Shangri-la added 7 new hotels, boostingsystemwide room count by 3%. On back of 7% sales growth in FY17, we estimateEBITDA grew 5% to US$530m on flattish margin. Given a high financial leverage (and finance cost almost 90% of FY17E EBITDA), we estimate recurring net profits grew 30% in FY17. The biggest swing came from China where weestimate Shangri-la's RevPAR + 9% in FY17, allowing its China hotel business toreturn to profitability after a net loss in FY16.
A multi-year RevPAR recovery cycle; risks
We lift Shangri-La's 2018 recurring net profit by 2019 5% recurring net profit by 7%, and our SOTPtarget price from HK$20 to HK$22. We use SOTP to value the stock. For thehotel segment, we use 16x target multiple on our 2018F hotel EBITDA. For theinvestment property segment, we use a target discount of 45% to NAV. Thismeans that our new TP is at a 40% discount to our NAV estimate of HK$37.5,which is slightly above historical average (45%). We think the above-averagetarget multiple is justified as the China luxury hotel industry is on a multi-yearrecovery phase. Risks include faster-than-expected interest rate hikes as thecompany has a very high (65%) net gearing ratio and only c. 30% of thecompany sinterest expenses are in fixed-rate.