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松芝股份(002454)公司首次覆盖:被忽视的电动车空调和热管理系统供应商

國泰君安 ·  Mar 5, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: The company is an excellent bus and passenger car air conditioning system integrator. At the same time, it has made a big splash in new energy vehicle air conditioning systems. New energy bus air conditioners account for 40% of the market, new energy passenger car air conditioners account for 10% of the market, and thermal management systems are about to be released. Investment points: First coverage, target price of 21.2 yuan, giving a rating of increased holdings. The company disclosed that the market space for air conditioning systems for new energy vehicles in 2018 was more than 4 billion yuan. Bus sector: traditional buses have switched to new energy buses, and the value of the air conditioner unit has increased from 30,000 yuan to 40,000 yuan; in the passenger car sector, the company has entered high-end customers such as Toyota, Volkswagen, and GM, and its market share has steadily increased. At the same time, the number of new energy vehicle thermal management systems developed for several years is about to be released, increasing performance. Therefore, the 2017-2019 EPS is predicted to be 0.89 yuan, 1.06 yuan, and 1.81 yuan, giving a valuation of 20 times that of 2018, corresponding to the target price of 21.2 yuan, and an increase in holdings rating. The value of air conditioning for new energy buses is higher, and new products have been added. The value of air conditioning for traditional buses is about 30,000 yuan, and the value of air conditioning for new energy buses is 40,000 yuan, which is 30% thicker. The company's market share in the field of new energy bus air conditioning is 40%. In addition, bus battery thermal management systems and intelligent heating systems have also begun to expand significantly. Expansion of high-end passenger car customers and expansion of thermal management systems. Previously, the company had low-end passenger car customers. After nearly two years of accumulation, it began to enter the supply chains of Shanghai Volkswagen, Honda, and GM. At the same time, it also provided a wide range of core components such as condensers for new energy vehicles (unit price 200-300 yuan). Complete thermal management systems will also be released, and compressors developed independently will gradually enter the core supply chain. Catalyst: The company's new products expand new high-end customers Risk warning: customer development falls short of expectations, sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations

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