Event
On January 31, 2018, Guanghui Logistics issued a pre-increase announcement on its 2017 performance. The company expects the net profit of shareholders belonging to listed companies to vary from 346 million yuan to 395 million yuan in 2017, an increase of 40% to 60% over the same period last year. The net profit of shareholders belonging to listed companies varies from 391 million yuan to 446 million yuan, an increase of 40% to 60% compared with the same period last year.
Comment
In the first three quarters, Guanghui Logistics achieved revenue of 417 million yuan, an increase of 11.28% over the same period last year, of which Q1/Q2/Q3 reached 1.29,1.71 and 116 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 29.55%, + 24.98% and-15.67%.
In the first three quarters, the net profit was 152 million, an increase of 0.03% over the same period last year, and the net profit after deducting non-return was 176 million, an increase of 14.76% over the same period last year. From a quarterly point of view, Q1/Q2/Q3 achieved a net profit of 0.62,0.49 and 42 million yuan respectively, an increase of + 24.77%, + 6.16% and-24.00% over the same period last year.
According to the pre-increase announcement of the company's performance, if the annual net profit varies from RMB 346 to RMB 395 million, the net profit of Q4 in a single quarter ranges from RMB 1.94 to RMB 243 million, compared with the same period last year. The year-on-year change range is 107.9% RMB160.5% Q4 realized net profit of RMB 93.3 million in 2016. The substantial increase in the company's 2017 performance came from the rapid expansion of Q4's factoring business and sales of new real estate projects, resulting in a significant increase in operating income and net profit compared with the same period last year.
Rely on Guanghui to build the leader of Belt and Road Initiative
In 2016, Continental Societe Generale and Yazhong Logistics carried out a major asset restructuring, and the company replaced all its assets and liabilities with the equivalent portion of 100% equity interest in Yazhong Logistics. The difference portion of 4.16 billion yuan was issued by the company to purchase 329 million shares from Guanghui Group, Xi'an Longda and Guanghui Chemical Construction at an issue price of 12.64 yuan per share.
After the completion of the asset exchange and supporting fund raising, Guanghui Group is the controlling shareholder of the company, accounting for 47.76%, and Sun Guangxin is the actual controller with a shareholding of 32.37%.
Actively transform and strive to lead the supply chain business platform
Guanghui logistics business mainly includes logistics park operation, commercial property management, real estate sales. The main results are as follows: 1) the logistics park is mainly operated by Meiju Logistics Park, which has been in operation for 13 years and is the core source of income of Asian-Central Logistics. It has formed a mature operation mechanism and rich customer resources. The opening of Khand L Block at the beginning of 18 has brought a new growth point. 2) Commercial property operation is a new business in 2016. 3) the real estate sales business is Meiju Logistics Park supporting residential real estate and 17-year new acquisition projects.
Profit forecast
We expect the company's annual net profit in 17-18-19 to be 3.70,5.04 and 598 million respectively, with performance growth rates of + 49.74%, + 36.22% and + 18.74%, respectively. EPS is 0.28,0.38,0.45 yuan respectively. In terms of valuation, the overall PE of the supply chain industry is 29.6 times, and the overall PE of the professional market is 23.0 times. We believe that the current PE of Guanghui Logistics is relatively undervalued, and the company is expected to accelerate its performance in 18 years, giving the company an "overweight" rating of 22 times PE corresponding to the target price of 8.36 yuan.
Risk hint: the opening of Block L of Meiju Logistics Park is not as expected, the final sale is not as expected, and the progress of Yilong Golin and Shuxin real estate projects is not as expected.