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今创集团(603680)新股申购:预计上市初期压力位57-65元

Jinchuang Group (603680) IPO: Expected pressure level of 57-65 yuan at the beginning of listing

恆泰證券 ·  Feb 8, 2018 00:00  · Researches

  Company Overview: Jinchuang Group is a large-scale enterprise group that mainly focuses on R&D and production of rail transit vehicle equipment and operates in a diversified manner. In 2016, the entire group achieved production and sales exceeding 12 billion yuan. As a strategic partner of CRRC and internationally renowned companies such as Bombardier, Alstom, and Siemens, Jinchuang Group mainly produces high-speed EMUs, urban rail transit vehicles, and ordinary train interior equipment and electrical equipment series. There are more than 2,000 types of products. The related products all adopt international or European standards, and the quality and after-sales service are highly recognized by customers. The company is a key high-tech enterprise certified by the Torch Center of the Ministry of Science and Technology. It has set up postdoctoral research workstations with the approval of the Ministry of Personnel of China, workstations for academicians approved by the Jiangsu Provincial Science and Technology Department, and has enterprises in Jiangsu Province and the Jiangsu Rail Vehicle Interior Equipment Engineering Technology Research Center. The controlling shareholder of the company is Mr. Yu Jinkun, and the actual controllers are Mr. Yu Jinkun and Mr. Ge Jianming. Prior to issuance, Mr. Yu Jinkun directly held 33.92% of the company's shares, indirectly controlled 5% of the company's shares through Wanrun Investment, and indirectly controlled 4.75% of the company's shares through Yi Hong Investment. The total holding ratio was 43.67%. Mr. Ge Jianming directly owns 32.59% of the company's shares. The current situation and prospects of the industry China has a large population and a vast area. Based on its characteristics such as high carrying capacity, low operating costs, and low energy consumption, railway transportation has become one of the most important modes of transportation in China, and railway construction has also become an important means of ensuring steady economic growth. China's railways developed by leaps and bounds during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period. Among them, high-speed railway construction developed the most rapidly. By the end of 2016, the operating mileage of high-speed railways in China reached 22,000 kilometers, with an operating mileage of about 124,000 kilometers, ranking first in the world. Although China's railways have achieved rapid development in the past few years, the volume of passenger and freight traffic in China is high, and the density of the railway network is still low compared to developed countries in the world. According to WorldBank estimates, at the end of 2015, China accounted for about 7% of the total length of railway lines in the world, yet it undertook about 25% of the world's freight and passenger traffic. The density of China's railway network, whether by land area average or population average, is lower than that of other major countries in the world, and increasing railway construction efforts is an inevitable choice to improve transportation conditions. Company highlights: The company is a national key high-tech enterprise with strong design and R&D capabilities. It has a national postdoctoral research workstation, Jiangsu academician workstation, Jiangsu Certified Enterprise Technology Center, Jiangsu Rail Vehicle Interior Equipment Engineering Technology Research Center, and Jiangsu Certified Industrial Design Center. The company began cooperating with Bombardier and Alstom in 2003, received strong support from international rail transit manufacturing giants in terms of site management, process control, quality maintenance, etc., and established and perfected various management systems in accordance with international standards, which promoted the formation of the company's core competitive soft power.

Fundraising project 1. EMU supporting equipment manufacturing project. 2. Urban rail transit supporting equipment expansion project. 3. Replenish working capital. Main potential risks (1) Risk with high customer concentration At the beginning of the reporting period, CNR and CNR merged into CRRC. According to the same customer control statistics, in 2014, 2015, 2016, and January-June 2017, the company's sales revenue to CRRC accounted for 56.05%, 57.61%, 56.75%, and 51.02% of operating income, respectively. In the fields covered by the company's products, vehicle manufacturers under CRRC independently select suppliers. If such vehicle manufacturers use joint tendering and other methods to select suppliers in the future, it may weaken the company's bargaining power and may adversely affect the company's operating performance. (2) Industrial policy risks: The country's industrial policy of prioritizing the development of the rail transit industry has enabled the rail transit equipment industry to develop rapidly in recent years. According to policy documents such as the “13th Five-Year Plan” Modern Integrated Transportation System Development Plan, “The State Council's Opinions on Reforming the Railway Investment and Financing System to Accelerate Railway Construction”, “National New Urbanization Plan (2014-2020)”, “Notice of the General Office of the State Council on Strengthening the Management of Urban Rapid Rail Transit Construction”, “Implementation Opinions on Localization of Urban Rail Transit Equipment”, and “Medium- to Long-Term Railway Network Plan”, China's rail transit construction will continue to develop for a long time to come. If there is a major adverse change in the country's industrial policy in the future, it may pose a risk to the company's operations. The industry where the valuation issuer is located is the railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry. As of February 5, 2018, the average static price-earnings ratio for the most recent month released by the China Securities Index was 47.5 times. The company's earnings per share in 2017 and 2018 are expected to be 1.49 yuan and 1.56 yuan respectively. Based on current market conditions, the pressure level for the initial listing is expected to be 57-65 yuan.

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