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威胜集团(03393.HK):来自国网的订单持续下滑 维持“中性”

國泰君安國際 ·  Feb 8, 2018 00:00  · Researches

National investment in power grids fell 2.2% year over year in 2017. National investment in power generation infrastructure reached RMB 270 billion in 2017, down 20.8% year on year, while investment in power grid fell slightly by 2.2% to RMB 531.5 billion during the period. We expect domestic investment in traditional power generation facilities to continue the current downward trend during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, but investment in the power grid will remain above RMB 500 billion per year. New orders from the State Grid fell 24.3% year over year in 2017. Weisheng won orders for smart meters and data collection terminals worth RMB 452.3 million in two unified tenders organized by the State Grid in 2017, down 24.3% year on year. Orders from the State Grid began to decline in 2015, and with the current high coverage rate of smart meters in China, 2018 is still not optimistic. As revenue from the smart metering solutions business continues to decline, intelligent power distribution systems and overseas business will play a more critical role in maintaining the company's profitability. The revenue of the smart metering solutions business fell by 21.2% year on year in the first half of 2017, while the revenue of the intelligent power distribution system and solution business and overseas market revenue grew rapidly during the period and recorded 35.8% and 62.6% year-on-year growth, respectively. We believe that the growth of the intelligent power distribution system and solutions business and overseas revenue will effectively mitigate the pressure and impact of the decline in revenue from the smart metering solutions business. We slightly increased our target price to HK$4.00 but maintained a “neutral” investment rating. We forecast earnings per share for the fiscal year 2017 to 2019 to be RMB 0.280/RMB 0.301 and RMB 0.313, respectively. The new target price is equivalent to 11.6 times/10.8 times/10.4 times the price-earnings ratio from 2017 to 2019 or 0.8 times the net market ratio from 2017 to 2019.

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