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蒙草生态(300355):季节性因素业绩增长略低于预期 拟发行2亿境外债改善现金流

聯訊證券 ·  Jan 31, 2018 00:00  · Researches

The incident company released its 2017 annual performance forecast on the evening of January 29: Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017 is expected to be 797 million yuan to 899 million yuan, an increase of 136%-165% over the previous year, and non-recurring profit and loss (after tax) of about 8.11 million yuan. Comment: The performance was slightly lower than the market and our expectations. The main effect was seasonal factors. From January to September 2017, the company achieved net profit of 7.2 billion yuan. From this, it is estimated that the net profit for the fourth quarter was 77 million yuan to 129 million yuan, an increase of -22% -30% over last year, slightly lower than the market and our expectations. Our judgment is likely mainly due to three factors: first, the company's projects are mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Due to the cold winter weather in the north and slow progress of the project, the fourth quarter was a low season for the company's construction, and this year was even more affected by the colder weather; second, after the “19th National Congress,” regulatory PPP documents were frequently issued, and the progress of some projects may be affected by policies; third, the company's corporate bond issuance was unfavorable, and capital aspects were affected to a certain extent. Policy constraints may end in March due to Ministry of Finance Document No. 92. Currently, PPP projects across the country are being regulated and cleaned up, and major banks have successively slowed the progress of issuing loans to PPP projects. It is expected that by March 31 this year, after the project clean-up is completed, the financing progress of compliance projects will accelerate, and project implementation is expected to accelerate. According to our statistics on the company's major contracts, most of the company's PPP projects are demonstration projects. They themselves are highly regulated and less affected by policies. There are plenty of projects in progress, and good performance in 2018. According to our statistics, the total number of contracts and framework agreements signed by the company from 2016 to January 2018 exceeded 64 billion yuan, which is 22.5 times the operating income in 2016. The company's framework agreement is of high quality. The 10-billion-level project is already in the preparation or procurement stage, and is generating revenue one after another. The implementation of the high-quality framework agreement is also a good lock in 18 years of performance. It plans to issue US$200 million of overseas bonds to ease the company's financial pressure. On January 29, 2018, the company announced that it intends to issue overseas bonds. The company will choose an opportunity to issue no more than US$200 million of 3-year US dollar green credit bonds (including US$200 million) during the validity period of the resolution. The capital raised is mainly used to supplement the company's operating capital and project construction capital. If the company successfully raises $200 million in capital, it will ease the financial pressure the company is currently facing and be able to move forward more quickly with the project construction schedule currently being ordered. Maintaining the “buy” rating, we downgraded the company's net profit in 2017-2019 to 8.43, 12.34 and 1,670 billion yuan, respectively, up 148.5%, 46.3%, and 35.4% year-on-year respectively. EPS was 0.53, 0.77 and 1.04 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE was 24/16/12x, respectively. The company has sufficient orders in hand, high certainty in performance growth, and maintains a “buy” rating. Risks indicate the risk that major projects will not be successfully implemented; the risk that accounts receivable will not be collected in a timely manner; and the risk that the issuance of foreign bonds will fail.

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