Based on Shanghai Free Trade Zone, create "Lean supply chain Management Pioneer"
Changlian Co., Ltd. was founded in May 2001, based on the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, is a high-end logistics-oriented, high-end enterprises to serve the professional third-party logistics enterprises. From 2014 to 2016, the company's revenue reached 10.55,12.02 and 1.168 billion yuan respectively, an increase of + 2.54%, + 13.97% and-2.79% respectively in the first half of 2017, an increase of 3.11% over the same period last year. As the proportion of supply chain trade business with relatively low gross margin has declined year by year, the supply chain logistics business with high gross margin has become the main contribution point of the company's gross margin, and the company's gross profit margin increased to 27.86% in the first half of 2017.
Supply chain logistics is the core and the driving force of revenue growth
At present, the company mainly deals in supply chain logistics and supply chain trade, in which supply chain logistics is the main growth point of the company's revenue, accounting for 85% of the revenue. Supply chain logistics consists of three major services: lean manufacturing logistics service, medical device lean logistics service and supply chain integrated service. From VMI, JIT, JIS, Milk-Run to full cold chain management, Internet of things management, intelligent air transportation and other models, the company has always been at the forefront of "smart logistics", adopting different business models to meet the diversified needs of customers.
Enjoy the convenience of free trade port area, luxurious star customer resources
The construction of Shanghai free trade port will give the three main lines of investment-- trade freedom, financial freedom and investment freedom-- which have geographical advantages, and the huge trade volume generated by the free trade port will create huge added value for the company. With the high quality service of one-stop supply chain management, the company has established a long-term strategic cooperative relationship with Bosch, Apple Inc, Sony Group Corp, Mitsubishi and other Fortune 500 enterprises, so the company has stable business and low risk. Coupled with the fact that the company adopts the light asset model and relies on the background of national reform to become the new benchmark for the reform of state-owned enterprises in the logistics industry, we believe that Changlian will achieve faster and stronger growth in the future.
Five major projects: improving the national network layout of Changlian Logistics
The company's IPO public offering of 92.1667 million shares raised 679 million yuan for the southwest logistics center and high-end modern logistics complex project, East China logistics base warehouse construction project, lean medical devices and medical reagents cold chain supply chain project, smart air logistics network project and smart logistics collaborative service platform project.
Profit forecast and valuation
We believe that on the one hand, the company has the convenience of the "free trade port area", the luxurious star customer resources ensure the long-term sustainable development of the company's business, and at the same time, as the benchmark for the reform of state-owned enterprises in Pudong is expected to fully enjoy the momentum brought by the mixed ownership economy; on the other hand, the company's light assets warehouse expansion model, with the gradual formation of the five major fund-raising projects, the future performance is expected to be gradually released. Changlian shares as secondary new shares and Shanghai Free Trade Zone supply chain enterprise leader is expected to enjoy a certain valuation premium, the company's annual EPS is expected to be 0.38,0.41 and 0.44 yuan respectively in 17-18-19, giving a "hold" rating, combined with the supply chain secondary IPO average valuation of 50.7x and the overall supply chain average valuation of 32x, calculate its value range of 13.1220.79yuan.
Risk hints: the risk of rapid promotion of business model, the risk of customer concentration, the risk of basic logistics outsourcing, the risk of warehouse lease, the risk of exchange rate fluctuation.
