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名家汇(300506):夜游经济持续催化 照明工程施工龙头腾飞在即

天風證券 ·  Feb 11, 2018 00:00  · Researches

  The employee stock ownership plan stimulates operating vitality, and the fixed increase is successfully implemented in the future to enhance market competitiveness. The company's chairman provided joint guarantees for priority and principal recovery of ordinary shares in the shareholding plan and participated in the purchase of ordinary shares, demonstrating its full confidence in the company's future development. This employee equity incentive plan will deeply bind the company's performance and employee interests, and is expected to further unleash the company's operating vitality. The company's chairman promised to participate in a fixed increase of no more than 800 million yuan. If successfully implemented, it will help improve the company's capital structure, consolidate the company's market-leading position in lighting engineering and contract energy management business, and lay the foundation for endogenous growth and epitaxial expansion. The entire industry chain has become a giant in lighting engineering construction. The company has strong construction capabilities for large-scale projects across the country. The company has formed a complete lighting engineering industry chain integrating lighting engineering design, construction and product R&D and sales, with obvious cost advantages; it has established a nationwide business network covering the whole country through 6 subsidiaries and 15 branches, and has strong cross-regional management capabilities; it has completed at least 39 major lighting engineering construction projects, and has accumulated rich experience in large-scale project construction, outstanding technical strength, and high brand reputation. In the context of a market where downstream customers are gradually dominated by the government and the scale of individual projects continues to expand, the company has a strong ability to obtain orders. According to the company's non-public stock offering plan, by the end of September 2017, the company had executed 855 million yuan of unfinished orders. In addition, it also had reserves of about 5.4 billion yuan in construction contracts and framework agreements. The order revenue ratio is high, and future performance is more guaranteed. The government is leading the construction of nighttime landscape lighting. Continued expansion of the scale of investment and broad market space have an obvious impact on GDP. They can increase tourist stickiness, enrich the tourism industry, and increase residents' happiness levels. The nighttime landscape lighting project is a vehicle for realizing night trips, and it is a popular project. Local governments are increasing their investment in nighttime landscape lighting year by year. According to the Gaogong LED Industry Research Institute, the average annual growth rate from 2017 to 2019 is expected to be above 30%, and the market size will reach nearly 130 billion yuan in 2019. The company's market share in the field of landscape lighting in 2016 was less than 1%, and there is great potential for growth. Taking advantage of the capital market's financial dividends, combined with the company's technical strength, historical performance and brand effects, the company has entered the blue ocean at night through models such as general construction contracting, EPC general contracting, and PPP. The market share is expected to increase rapidly, and future performance may maintain a high growth rate for many years. Investment suggestions: Employee shareholding stimulates the company's operating vitality; fixed increases have been approved, and smooth implementation in the future is expected to significantly enhance the company's market competitiveness; major shareholders provide principal guarantees for employee stock ownership plans and participation in fixed increases demonstrate confidence in future operations. With the cost advantages of the entire industry chain, deep technical accumulation, strong financial strength and excellent historical performance, the company has strong ability to obtain orders and has a high in-hand order revenue ratio. The company may continue to benefit from the incremental lighting engineering market in the future and enter the blue ocean at night through models such as general construction contracting, EPC general contracting, and PPP, and its performance is expected to maintain a high growth rate. In line with the company's 2017 performance forecast, and considering that infrastructure funding in 2018 may be even tighter in the context of continued deleveraging and strict control of local government debt, we adjusted the company's profit forecast and adjusted the net profit forecast values from 2017 to 2019 from 2.40, 3.64, and 548 million yuan to 187, 302, and 488 million yuan. The corresponding EPS was 0.62, 1.01, and 1.63 yuan/share, respectively. The corresponding PE was 31,19,12 times. We gave the company a valuation of 24 times its 2018 performance. The target price was adjusted from 30.00 yuan/share to 24.24 yuan/share, maintaining the “gain” rating. Risk warning: Nightlife economic development falls short of expectations; project payback falls short of expectations; accounts receivable are at higher risk

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