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红太阳(000525)点评:公司业绩快报 17年归母净利润增长四倍之多

羣益證券(香港) ·  Feb 1, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Conclusions and suggestions: The company announced its 17-year performance report. In 2017, the company achieved revenue of 4.98 billion yuan, YOY +41%, and recorded net profit of 702 million yuan, YOY +455% times, equivalent to EPS of 1.21 yuan. Among them, Q4 had revenue of 1,318 million yuan, YOY +193%, recorded net profit of 181 million yuan, and YOY +107%. The company's performance is in line with our expectations. As environmental protection policies become stricter, domestic supply-side reforms continue, and foreign agrochemical giants have entered the inventory replenishment stage, the company's product prosperity is expected to be maintained, maintaining the “buy” rating. Product prosperity is high, and the improvement in overall gross margin is the driving force for performance growth: affected by various factors such as environmental protection policies, supply-side reforms, and the recovery in crude oil prices in '17, the company's product prices have increased dramatically, leading to a significant increase in the company's performance. The average annual price of the company's product pyridine in '17 was 2,8051 yuan/ton, up 42% year on year, and the average price of niacinamide in '17 was 66.97 yuan/kg, up 72% year on year. The increase in product prices was greater than the increase in raw materials, and the company's gross margin improved markedly. For example, the company's comprehensive gross margin increased by 18 percentage points to 30% year-on-year in the first three quarters. Pyridine is the global leader and extends many downstream industrial chains: the company has a production capacity of about 62,000 tons of pyridine base, and the total global production capacity of pyridine base is about 300,000 tons. The company is the largest producer of pyridine base, with a market share of more than 20%. The company's pyridine industry chain is mainly divided into the pyridine industry chain and the 3-methylpyridine industry chain. The downstream products in the pyridine industry chain are mainly paraquat, diazepam, etc., and the downstream products of 3-methylpyridine mainly include nicotinic acid/nicotinamide, imidacloprid, stable, high coverage, etc. Paraquat is the second largest herbicide in the world, accounting for 45% of downstream consumption of pyridine. The company's production capacity is about 20,000 tons, accounting for 27% of global production. In line with the growth rate of about 2.9% in the past three years, paraquat is irreplaceable, and downstream demand is stable. The company's production capacity is closest to paraquat in terms of performance. Currently, the company's production capacity is 2,000 tons, and later it will expand to 10,000 tons. Paraquat is banned in some regions, leading to an increase in demand. In terms of the 3-methylpyridine industry chain, the global effective production capacity of niacinamide is 94,000 tons, accounting for about 85% of the downstream consumption structure of trimethylpyridine. Niacinamide production is limited by the supply of 3-methylpyridine. Currently, there is a slight excess of niacinamide, but considering the influence of raw material supply and plant shutdown factors, the niacinamide supply relationship will improve. The company's current production capacity of nicotinamide is 10,000 tons, and the production capacity under construction is 10,000 tons. The company is currently the only domestic manufacturer with a full industrial chain of paraquat and nicotinamide. It also also has various high-tonnage pesticide products such as chlorpyrifos, imidacloprid, and methrin. According to changes in market demand, the company's production capacity can be switched between various products, and its ability to resist market risks is strong. The price of the company's products is expected to remain high in 2018: at present, the price of pure pyridine is 31,000 yuan/ton, up 59% year on year, and the price of paraquat mother liquid of 42% is around 21,750 yuan/ton, up more than 45% year on year. In addition, the price of niacinamide is 45 yuan/kg, which is the same as the previous year. Environmental protection policies are becoming stricter, and supply-side reforms will continue. The Ministry of Agriculture requires zero growth in domestic pesticide production capacity by 2020. Coupled with rising international oil prices and foreign agrochemical giants replenishing stocks, the company's products may maintain a high level of prosperity, and the 18-year performance is expected to grow steadily. Profit forecast: We expect the company to achieve net profit of 702/8.41/964 million yuan in 2017/2018/year, yoy +455.5%/+19.8%/+14.5%, equivalent to EPS of 1.21/1.45/1.66 yuan. Currently, the PE corresponding to A-share prices is 18X, 15X, and 13X. As the company's products are expected to maintain a high level of popularity, we maintain a “buy” rating. Risk warning: 1. The price of the company's products falls short of expectations; 2. Changes in the paraquat ban policy.

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