Investment points: private holding background, the mechanism is more flexible. Over the past 13 years, the company has returned to the main business of trust, the scale of trust has risen rapidly, and various rankings have risen rapidly. The company conforms to the development situation of the industry, actively promotes the transformation of business innovation, and strives to make the active management bigger and stronger. The "real stock and real debt" model is adopted, and the rate of return of the trust is ahead of the industry. The target price is 14.96 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Event: Anxin Trust achieved an operating income of 5.592 billion yuan in 2017, an increase of 6.60% over the same period last year, a net profit of 3.668 billion yuan, an increase of 20.91% over the same period last year, and an EPS of 0.8 yuan, in line with expectations. By the end of 2017, the company's total assets were 25.126 billion yuan, an increase of 31.37% over the beginning of the year, and net assets were 16.191 billion yuan, an increase of 18.03% over the beginning of the year.
Steadily improve the status of trust main business, and the proportion of active management continues to increase. By continuously improving the capital strength and quality, the company promotes the development of trust business, steadily promotes the status of trust main business, and gradually carries out innovative business, including private equity investment trust, public trust, ABS, entrusted overseas financial management and industrial funds. By the end of 2017, the company's entrusted assets reached 232.6 billion yuan, down 1% from the beginning of the year, but the proportion of active management continued to rise to 68%, and the active management scale increased by 12% compared with the same period last year. Based on the rapid growth of trust scale and the continuous improvement of the company's active management ability in recent years, the company's financial indicators have improved rapidly, and revenue, net profit and trust rate of return have been raised from 40-50 to the top 10 in 10 years.
The ability of active management has been improved, and the rate of return on trust is leading in the industry. In 2017, the company realized trust remuneration income of 5.244 billion yuan, an increase of 19% over the same period last year. Since 2015, the company has complied with the development of the industry, actively promoted the transformation of business innovation, made efforts to expand and strengthen the active management scale, and promoted the sustained growth of the company's operating profits. The company trust business locates the industrial investment bank, serves the real economy in the form of investment and loan linkage, and the rate of return on trust gradually stabilizes and always maintains the lead of the industry. We believe that as the share of active management continues to increase and the company actively promotes business transformation and upgrading, the future return on corporate trust is expected to exceed 2.2% (1.6% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2017).
The inherent business advances steadily and the income structure is diversified. The company's inherent strategic business layout takes into account the investment income, and promotes the financial integration company. In 2017, the company achieved a net interest income of 126 million yuan, a decrease of 29% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in interest expenditure of the trust guarantee fund, and the investment income (including fair value) was 187 million yuan.
After two times of capital market refinancing, the company's capital has been replenished, and the liquidity of inherent business assets has increased significantly. With the continuous expansion of the scale of net assets, the use of the company's inherent business funds is no longer limited to the traditional loan business. it has realized the diversified investment operation of financial products such as loans, securities market, private placement projects, equity investment of unlisted financial enterprises and so on.
Profit forecast and valuation. We estimate that the company will achieve an operating income of 64.52%, 68.19% / 7.198 billion yuan, an increase of 15%, 6%, and a net profit of 42.61%, 4.527%, 4.778 million yuan and 16%, 6%, 6%, respectively, corresponding to EPS0.93/0.99/1.05 yuan. Using the comparable company valuation method, the company is given 16x2018E Pmax E, and the target price of the company is 14.96 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the problem of rigid payment is still difficult to solve; the external environment is grim.
