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MODERN DENTAL(3600.HK):细分龙头

申萬宏源研究 ·  Feb 1, 2018 00:00  · Researches

As the world's leading manufacturer of dentures, Hyundai Dentistry supplies fixed dentures and movable dentures to global markets such as Europe, North America, Australia and Greater China. We forecast the company's 2017 revenue to be around HK$2.68 billion (up 63% year over year) and net profit of 150 million yuan (up 49% year over year). We lowered 2017 EPS to HK$0.15 (up 49% year over year), raised EPS in 2018 to HK$0.21 (up 36% year over year), and raised EPS in 2019 to $0.27 (up 30% year over year). Using a comparative valuation method, we came up with a target price of HK$3.12. There is an upward margin of 22.4% of the current price from the target price, which has been raised to a purchase. The Chinese market has huge potential. Due to its large population base and low oral health costs, China's dental care industry has huge market room for growth. We believe that China's dental industry is still developing rapidly. Over the past five years, the Chinese dental market has maintained an annual growth rate of more than 10%. By 2016, the domestic dental market reached about 21.7 billion yuan. The rapid development of the Chinese economy, the growth of residents' disposable income, medical insurance coverage, increased residents' awareness of oral care, the aging population, the proportion of dentists, and rapid progress in domestic oral care product technology will all accelerate the development of the dental industry. We believe that China will become the main growth market for the global denture industry in the future. The income of Chinese residents has increased. As China's economy continues to develop and the per capita income of Chinese residents increases, so does the demand for medical consumption. The per capita disposable income of urban residents increased from 15,781 yuan in 2008 to 33,616 yuan in 2016, with an average compound annual growth rate of 9.9%. The per capita disposable income of rural residents increased from 4,761 yuan in 2008 to 12,363 yuan in 2016. The increase in income has raised residents' living standards and health care expenses, and continues to stimulate demand for oral health care. Strong sales. Hyundai Dentistry sold 544,000 fixed denture equipment in the first half of 2017, accounting for about 62.3% of total sales. Affected by MicroDental's low margin in North America, we expect gross margin to drop from 53.6% in 2016 to 50.9% in 2017. According to company data, the average sales price of products in the first nine months of 2017 was HK$1,241, compared to HK$1,148 for the same period last year. Upgraded to buy. We lowered 2017 EPS to HK$0.15 (up 49% year over year), increased EPS in 2018 to HK$0.21 (up 36% year over year), and increased EPS in 2019 to $0.27 (up 30% year over year). Using the comparative valuation method, we came up with a target price of HK$3.12, representing 15 times 18-year PE. There is an upward margin of 22.4% of the current price from the target price, which has been raised to a purchase.

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