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东百集团(600693)简报:业绩超预期 百货业务有望逐步复苏

光大證券 ·  Jan 25, 2018 00:00  · Researches

  The company predicts 2017 results. Net profit increased 130%-170% year on year. On January 24, the company announced the 2017 annual performance forecast announcement. The company's net profit for 2017 is expected to be 232-273 million yuan, an increase of 130%-170% year on year, which is converted into fully diluted EPS of 0.26-0.30 yuan. Net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss is expected to be 237-278 million yuan, up 128%-168% year on year. The company believes that the reason for the sharp increase in performance is that revenue from the “Lanzhou International Trade Center Project” and the “Fu'an East 100 Plaza Project” increased significantly compared to the same period last year, resulting in a significant increase in net profit from the parent company. Commercial real estate contributed a lot of profit, and the renovation of major department stores completed the real estate business aspect. In 2017, the first residential phase of the Fu'an East 100 Plaza Project 1 #楼、3 #楼、10 #楼、5 #楼逐步交房。 In 1-3Q2017, the company's real estate sales revenue was 1.158 billion yuan, achieving gross profit of 345 million yuan. In terms of department store business, the company's main stores, Dongbaidong Street Store and Dongfang Dongjie Store, are located in the Dongjiekou business district of the core business center of Fuzhou. Fuzhou Metro Line 1, which has been under construction for many years, was officially opened to traffic in the first half of 2017, and the impact of construction was eliminated. In June 2017, Dongbai Group initiated one of its largest store adjustments in 60 years, opening two stores, Dongbai Dongjie Store and Dongfang Dongjie Store, transforming it into a shopping center with an operating area of over 120,000 square meters, and changing its name to “Dongbai Center”. Fuzhou Dongbai Center officially opened on October 27, bringing 65 brands entering Fuzhou for the first time. The department store business has regional advantages, and revenue is expected to gradually recover. In terms of department store business, Dongbai Center, which was renovated in 2017, has location advantages, scale advantages, and transportation advantages close to subway stations, and operating income is expected to gradually recover. In terms of real estate business, the Lanzhou International Trade Center project and the Fu'an East 100 Plaza project continued to contribute a lot of profit. In terms of supply chain business, the company expanded business cooperation with high-quality and stable customers such as state-owned grain groups and large domestic feed companies, and revenue grew steadily. The profit forecast was raised to a “buy” rating. The real estate business of the company contributed a lot of profit. The department store business has regional advantages, and revenue is expected to gradually recover. Currently, the domestic department store industry is generally picking up markedly. We raised our forecast for the company's overall dilution of EPS in 2017-2019 to 0.28/ 0.38/ 0.47 yuan (previously 0.17/ 0.26/ 0.22 yuan), respectively. Considering the large decline in the company's stock price in the previous period, the company's valuation returned to 20X in 2018. There may be room for a short-term rebound and upgraded to a “buy” rating. Risk warning: The recovery of the department store business fell short of expectations, and the contribution of the real estate business fell short of expectations.

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