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华钰矿业(601020)公告点评:价格上涨提业绩 海外投资增储量

廣發證券 ·  Jan 28, 2018 00:00  · Researches

  Core view: Event: 2017 company performance forecast. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to reach about 280 million yuan to 320 million yuan throughout the year, an increase of about 52.3% to 71.0% over the previous year. The main reason is that the prices of lead, antimony and zinc rose sharply in 2017. At the same time, the company received a total of 26.2443 million yuan in government subsidies. Product prices are rising, and the company's performance continues to grow. In 2017, the average price of zinc, antimony, and lead SHFE increased by 43.0%, 25.8%, and 32.4% year on year, which is the main reason for the increase in performance. In 2018, due to environmental taxes and the issuance of industry sewage permits, the lead-zinc-antimony industry was under unprecedented environmental pressure, and supply may be affected. The fundamentals of the industry continue to improve, and the company's performance is expected to maintain a high growth rate. It is planned to expand overseas investment and increase resource reserves. According to the company's announcement, the company plans to establish a joint venture with Tajik Aluminum, each holding 50% interest, to establish a joint venture “Ta Aluminum Gold”. Through this cooperation, the company's gold and antimony equity reserves increased by 24.95 tons and 132,300 tons respectively. Tajikistan is rich in antimony resources and ranks among the top five in the world. Meanwhile, Tajik Aluminum is a major state-owned enterprise in the country's manufacturing industry. Resource endowments and company status provide a strong guarantee for the company to continue to increase its resource reserves in the future. Enjoying the dividends of tax policy, the region has obvious advantages. As the leading industry in the Tibet region, Huayu Mining enjoys policy tax dividends. In 2017, the income tax rate for companies and branches was 15%, and the income tax rate for major participating subsidiaries was 9%. In addition, the company expects to receive a total of 26.2443 million yuan in government subsidies related to revenue. Environmental protection efforts have continued to increase, and the supply of lead, zinc and antimony has intensified, supporting the rise in metal prices and giving it a “buy” rating. According to the closing price on January 26, the company's EPS for 17-19 is expected to be 0.59 yuan, 0.81 yuan, and 0.95 yuan, respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 46 times, 34 times, and 28 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: The price increase of zinc, lead, and antimony fell short of expectations, and the progress of foreign investment projects fell short of expectations, etc.

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