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德尔股份(300473)业绩预告点评:募投产品上量 公司拐点或现

廣發證券 ·  Jan 10, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company expects a year-on-year increase of 20.3%-35.8% in 2017. The company released the 17-year annual report performance forecast. It is expected to achieve net profit of 132 million yuan to 149 million yuan in 17, an increase of 20.3%-35.8% over the previous year. The significant increase in the company's performance is related to the rapid growth rate of the company's fundraising of new products such as electro-hydraulic pumps, automatic transmission oil pumps, automotive electronics, etc., as well as to the merger of Carqueus after the company completed the Carquus merger and acquisition. The number of fund-raising projects gradually increased. The company's inflection point may have reached an inflection point because the HPS used in some customer models was replaced by EPS. In 2016, the company's steering pump sales declined, and both revenue and performance declined. Facing the trend of electrification, the company actively transformed and upgraded to cope with changes in product demand, and successfully developed products such as automatic transmission oil pumps, EHPS electro-hydraulic pumps, EPS motors, and PEPS. We expect the company's new business to continue to rise in volume in 2018, and the company may reach an inflection point. Various new businesses provide broad development space, and the company's transformation into a comprehensive solution service provider. We believe that the company's biggest focus in the future is electric pumps with high technical barriers. The double increase in penetration rate and bicycle value brought about by markets such as electric pumps, EHPS, EPS motors, and transmission mechanical pumps will provide the company with broad development space. Furthermore, the company completed the acquisition of Carcus, a supplier of noise reduction and insulation products, which is conducive to diversification of its products and expansion into the global market. The company gradually began to provide system solutions, transforming from a supplier of steering system components to a comprehensive service provider of automotive parts for steering, transmission, braking, automotive electronics, and body systems. Investment advice companies used to be automobile steering pump leaders, and their management capabilities and profitability remained at a high level for a long time. At the same time, the company has a number of automotive electronics technology reserves, and upgrade product projects such as electric pumps are progressing smoothly. It has broken through the steering system and entered the transmission and braking system. The endogenous growth is high. After the acquisition of CCI, the company achieved endogenous and epitaxial two-wheel drive development. We expect the company's EPS in 17-19 to be 1.30, 2.34, and 3.28 yuan, respectively, and 30/17/12 times the PE corresponding to the current stock price, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risks suggest that the growth of the traditional main business falls short of expectations; the expansion of new projects falls short of expectations; and the risk of integration after the acquisition of CCI.

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