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杭州园林(300649)事件点评:业绩略超预期 拓展EPC初见成效

國海證券 ·  Jan 23, 2018 00:00  · Researches

Incident: On the evening of January 17, the company released its 2017 annual performance forecast: it is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 3281.69-378.57 million yuan, an increase of 30% to 50% over the previous year. Annual revenue increased 30%-60% year over year. Our comments on this are as follows: Key investment points: Net profit increased by 30%-50%, slightly exceeding market expectations. In 2017, the company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 32.816,900 yuan to 378.657 million yuan, an increase of 30% to 50% over the previous year. The performance forecast raised the lower limit of growth, from 20% to 30% expected in the three-quarter report, slightly exceeding market expectations. The reason for the increase in performance is that the company proposed a “two-wheel drive” development strategy for the design and ecological environment business. While continuously consolidating the core competitiveness of the company's design business, it gave full play to the entry advantages of the design business, actively expanded various businesses in the industrial chain, continuously strengthened management and market expansion, effectively improved the level of operation and management, and maintained continuous growth in the design business. At the same time, the EPC business began to be implemented, confirming revenue of about 30 million yuan, which increased annual revenue by 30% to 60% year-on-year. Influence in the industry continues to grow, with sufficient orders to guarantee performance growth. The company has double A qualifications for landscape architecture and construction design. It has shaped a good brand image with works such as the West Lake Comprehensive Protection Project, Xixi National Wetland Park, the “G20 Hangzhou Summit”, and the “Xiamen BRICS Leaders' Meeting” core landscape design, etc., and is a leading enterprise in the landscape design industry. With its brand advantage, the company has obtained a large number of projects. Since its listing, the company has successively won bids for the Huizhou Tonghu Ecological Smart Zone Wetland Ecological Park Design Project (contract amount of 338.31 million yuan), the Zibo Wenchang Lake Huanhu Park Phase II landscape design project (contract amount of 18 million yuan), and the first bid section of the Gongyi Ecological Water System Construction Project Survey and Design Project (winning bid cost 38.64 million yuan). Currently, the company's outstanding orders have provided a guarantee for the company's high performance growth in the future. The first EPC project progressed smoothly. Together with Oriental Garden to expand PPP, the company entered a new stage of development. In November 2017, the company signed the “Boao Dagong National Park Phase I Project (EPC) Contract Agreement” with the Qionghai Municipal Government of Hainan Province. The company mainly carried out pre-engineering construction of the Boao Agricultural National Park project in China, including Boao Mangrove Wetland Park, Boao Agricultural Park, and the construction of two beautiful villages, Shamei Village and Peilan Village. The total investment of the project is 294.6 million yuan. This is the company's first EPC engineering turnkey project, showing the Qionghai Municipal Government's recognition of the company. After completion, the project will not only enhance the company's performance, but also form a demonstration effect, which will help the company expand more EPC projects. In June 2017, the company signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Oriental Garden to enter the PPP design field, broadening the company's project sources. We believe that the company's design business grasps the overall planning of the project and occupies an early entry point. Expanding EPC, engineering and other businesses has obvious advantages. Expanding EPC, PPP and other businesses can greatly improve revenue levels and increase performance. At the same time, in November 2017, the bank signed a credit line of 10 billion yuan. Funding was also guaranteed, and the company's development entered a new stage. Profit forecast and investment rating: Maintain the company's “gain” rating. We are optimistic about the company's brand advantages and future development prospects. As the company expanded its EPC business, we raised the company's performance. The company's 2017-2019 EPS is expected to be 0.27, 0.47, and 0.59 yuan, respectively, corresponding to the current share price PE of 135, 78, and 63 times, maintaining the company's “gain” rating. Risk warning: risk of project expansion falling short of expectations, risk of a sharp increase in accounts receivable, macroeconomic downside risk, and uncertain risk of expansion into the engineering field.

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