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科华生物(002022)动态跟踪:“参股奥华+日立合作”将加强现有产品线

東方證券 ·  Dec 29, 2017 00:00  · Researches

The core idea is to invest in Aoran Biotech to enrich molecular diagnostic reagents. Recently, the company announced that it will use its own capital of 30 million yuan to invest in Aoran Biotech. After the completion of this investment, the company will hold 10.01% of Aoran Biotech's shares. According to the agreement, the two sides mainly cooperate in the application of fully automated fluorescence PCR molecular diagnostic systems (GalaxyPro and Galaxy Nano), covering specific fields such as STDs, respiratory diseases, high-risk HPV testing, and blood nucleic acid screening. Additionally, Aoran Biotech agreed to grant exclusive distribution rights for 5 years for Kehua Biotech related diagnostic kits. We believe this investment will enrich the company's molecular products (mainly influenza virus clinical PCR and nucleic acid blood screening). Cooperation with Hitachi Diagnostics is expected to enhance the competitiveness of biochemical products. On December 7, the company signed a cooperation agreement with Hitachi Diagnostic Products (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., and the two sides will cooperate in biochemical instrument (reagent) sales throughout the country. On the one hand, Guangdong Xinyou Biotechnology, which the company previously acquired, will maintain Hitachi Biochemical's first-level market agent status in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, and Hainan; in addition to the above 4 provinces, Hitachi will also open other non-agent regions to support the company in promoting and selling Hitachi diagnostic products throughout the country; on the other hand, the company will provide special supporting reagents for the Hitachi LABOST008 AS system and sell them directly to PEC dealers or customers. Deepen the channel layout and promote the “instrument+reagent” model. On the basis of the gradual improvement of the product line in the early stages, the company has recently begun to strengthen sales channel construction. Since the beginning of the year, the company has successively completed control of Xi'an Shenke Biotech and Guangdong Xinyou Biotech. Among them, the former is the largest distributor in Shaanxi Province, and the latter is Hitachi Biochemical's first-level agent in the four southern provinces. The company has always implemented the “instrument+reagent” integrated strategy in the development process. The expansion of sales channels will further deepen this business model and enhance competitiveness. Financial Forecasting and Investment Advising The Company's revenue growth rate for the first three quarters fell short of expectations, so we re-estimated the company's net profit of 17-19 to be 233/2.54/280 million yuan (the original forecast was 2.47/2.83/326 million yuan), corresponding to EPS of 0.45/0.50/0.55 yuan (the original forecast was 0.48/0.55/0.64 yuan). Based on comparable company valuations, the corresponding target price was 17.10 yuan, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning that if the integration of the company's mergers and acquisitions targets does not create synergy, it will adversely affect the long-term development of the company.

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