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富春环保(002479)点评:二噁英在线快速检测技术鉴定通过 全球首家 院士加持

招商證券 ·  Dec 20, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Event: On December 17, 2017, the “Online Rapid Detection Technology for Dioxin Emissions from Incineration Process” certification meeting developed by Fuchunjiang Environmental Protection in collaboration with Zhejiang University, and the “National Engineering Laboratory for Waste Incineration Technology and Equipment” led by Zhejiang University and attended by Fuchun Environmental Protection were held in Fuyang District, Hangzhou. The certification team confirmed that this online rapid detection system for dioxin emissions is the world's first online rapid detection system for dioxin emissions, and according to the certification opinions provided by the certification team, the “online rapid detection technology for dioxin emissions during incineration” has reached the leading international level and agreed to pass the certification. Comment: 1. Introduction to dioxins and the principle of rapid detection: Tunable laser ionization combined with time-of-flight mass spectrometry technology to detect dioxin indicators in flue gas online, then obtain dioxin toxicity equivalent concentrations through accurate correlation models between indicators and dioxins. The index performance is excellent. (1) The origin of dioxins is complex, and domestic emission standards are stricter. Dioxins usually refer to a group of polychlorine-substituted planar aromatic hydrocarbons with similar structure and physico-chemical properties. They are chlorinated oxygen-containing tricyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. The International Center for Cancer Research has classified them as first-class carcinogens in humans. The sources of dioxins in the atmospheric environment are complex and diverse. The most popular sources include household waste incineration, hazardous waste incineration, collaborative disposal of solid waste in cement kilns, and steel sintering. In the field of domestic waste incineration which the public is most concerned about, the emission limit for dioxins in domestic waste incineration flue gas in China is 0.1 ngTeq/nm3, which is in line with the standards of the European Union and Japan, and is the strictest in the world; the current standard for hazardous waste incineration is GB18284-2001, and the emission standard for dioxins is 0.5 ngTeq/Nm3, but the latest hazardous waste incineration pollution control standard (draft for comments) has reduced it to 0.1 ngTeq/nm3. (2) Fuchun Environmental Protection and Zhejiang University cooperate to develop rapid detection technology for dioxins The carrier of the online rapid detection technology for dioxin emissions during the incineration process developed by Fuchun Environmental Protection and Zhejiang University is a dioxin online detection system for trace organic pollutants in flue gas. The system is mainly composed of four key subsystems, including an efficient flue gas sampling and pretreatment system, a tunable laser system, an online mass spectrometry monitoring system, and a data control and analysis system. The basic principle of online testing is based on tunable laser ionization and joint time-of-flight mass spectrometry technology to detect dioxins in smoke, combined with indicators An accurate correlation model with dioxins finally obtains the toxic equivalent concentration of dioxins. Among them, the tunable laser power system uses a tunable laser, and the output laser wavelength is continuously adjustable, the corresponding ionization wavelength of the target object is accurately selected, and the error interference is smaller. The material separated from the chromatographic column is hit by a laser to form high-efficiency selective ionization, and hit on the detector in the online detection mass spectrometry system. The quality of the material is determined through changes in the acceleration process and the time it finally reaches the detector, and the data is collected and controlled through a signal detection amplifier. Thus, a highly selective, fast and accurate two-dimensional online analysis method has been formed, which in turn monitors various dioxin indicators. The control and data processing system uses the intelligent PC host to uniformly control and send signals to ensure the coordinated and stable operation of the laser, time-of-flight mass spectrometry, and pulse sampling valves; the monitoring signal is processed through an advanced software system to quickly obtain dioxin detection data, and the data is transmitted remotely in real time. (3) Excellent index performance The main performance indicators of this online rapid detection system for dioxins are the detection gas molecular weight range of 1-400u, with a resolution greater than 500; the dioxin detection limit of 0.01 ngTEQ/Nm3; the linearity between detection and target concentration is greater than 95%; and the deviation between the online monitoring concentration value of dioxin and the offline monitoring concentration value is less than 30%. From the specific performance indicators, it can also be seen that the performance indicators of the online rapid detection technology for dioxins developed by the company in cooperation with Zhejiang University have reached a relatively good level, and the difference with traditional offline testing methods is within a small deviation range. 2. Technology research and development process, barriers, and technological leadership: Starting from the R&D accumulation of Zhejiang University's professional team over many years, integrating Fuchun's environmental R&D advantages, high technical barriers and talent barriers, and ultimately achieving major technological innovation, reaching international leadership. (1) Strong R&D team The R&D team for this technology is led by leading experts in this field, such as Fellow Cen Ke of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, Professor Yan Jianhua of Zhejiang University, Professor Li Xiaodong of Zhejiang University, Professor Lu Shengyong of Zhejiang University, and senior engineer Zhang Zhongmei of Fuchun Environmental Protection. The company's R&D team consists of more than 20 people, including 6 PhDs, with strong strength, breadth and depth of research. (2) Research history - Using Zhejiang University's many years of accumulation as a starting point and a strong alliance with Fuchun Environmental Protection, Zhejiang University, the technical support unit of the Technology Innovation Company, carried out dioxin-related research as early as the 90s of the last century. The important events in the research history of Zhejiang University and Fuchun environmental cooperation are shown below. In 2004, an international advanced dioxin laboratory was established. (3) Talent barriers bring high-tech barriers. As far as the specific aspects of this technology are concerned, the main barriers are: the mechanism associated with chlorobenzene indicators in incineration flue gas and the generation and emission of dioxins has been successfully revealed, and a correlation model between dioxin emissions from typical waste incinerators and indicators has been established. An online detection method for tunable laser ionization combined with time-of-flight mass spectrometry has been developed to achieve efficient selective ionization and accurate quantitative online detection of chlorobenzene dioxin indicators. It integrates modules such as efficient flue gas pre-concentration separation, tunable laser ionization combined time-of-flight mass spectrometry, associated models, and data control analysis software to achieve rapid online detection of dioxin emissions during incineration. However, it is even more important to note that whether it is the establishment of a correlation between indicators and dioxins, or the subsequent use of tunable laser ionization combined time-of-flight mass spectrometry online detection methods to achieve efficient selective ionization and accurate quantitative online testing of chlorobenzene dioxin indicators, it requires extensive scientific research support. This technological innovation is the result and crystallization of the research team's in-depth research on all aspects of dioxin generation, control, and detection every day for 20 years. This is a fundamental barrier to this technology. (4) Leading the world in technology, achieving a breakthrough from 0 to 1. The expert group of the Significant Appraisal Committee clearly proposed that the online rapid detection system for dioxin emissions developed by Fuchun Environmental Protection in collaboration with Zhejiang University was the world's first online rapid detection system for dioxin emissions, and reached the leading international level. Currently, there is no online testing technology for dioxin testing. Even multinational environmental protection companies such as Weiliya and SUEZ Environmental, which are regarded as benchmarks in the environmental protection industry, currently use offline testing technology, and online automatic testing is not possible. Since the toxicity of dioxins and their effects on human health were determined, the monitoring of dioxins has been a worldwide problem. The online testing technology developed by the company in collaboration with Zhejiang University marks a worldwide breakthrough in this field from 0 to 1, solving this worldwide problem and filling the gaps in technical solutions. Today, when society's environmental awareness is increasing, the pursuit of health is becoming more intense, and environmental requirements are becoming more stringent, the approval of this online rapid testing technology will not only have a profound impact on domestic dioxin emission control, but is also significant in the international market. 3. Market space and path of industrialization (1) Market space The application fields of online rapid detection technology for dioxin emissions in incineration processes involve large-scale organic matter incineration furnaces. The most widely known fields are domestic waste incineration plants, hazardous waste incineration treatment, collaborative disposal of solid waste in cement kilns, steel sintering, etc. Due to a lack of rapid detection technology for a long time, and unlike online continuous monitoring requirements for other major air pollutants, the government's current requirements for dioxin monitoring in various industrial fields are limited to offline testing. Taking the domestic waste incineration field as an example, according to the requirements of the “Domestic Waste Incineration Pollution Control Standard” (GB 18485-2014), domestic waste incineration plants should monitor dioxins in flue gas at least once a year (usually local governments require enterprises to carry out an additional one time). The sampling requirements are carried out in accordance with the relevant regulations of HJ77.2, and its concentration is measured 3 times continuously The arithmetic mean of values. Offline testing is not only likely to reflect the true level of flue gas emissions over a long period of time because the sample is small, but the entire process takes a long time, usually up to 2 weeks or more. It lacks timeliness. The lack of rapid testing technology seriously limits the increasing requirements of government regulators for dioxin monitoring and the promotion of dioxin emission control. According to information, the number of furnaces emitting dioxins in fields where dioxin emissions are widely known, such as domestic waste incineration plants, hazardous waste incineration disposal, cement kilns, and steel sintering, etc., is over the thousands in China. Furthermore, considering that there are still a large number of incineration equipment that can generate dioxin pollutants in fields such as non-ferrous metal smelting and coal-fired power plants, etc., and possibly a broad foreign market, especially in regions such as the United States, Europe, and Japan where waste incineration is fully developed and accounts for a high proportion, the theoretical market demand space for this technical equipment will also increase significantly, and it should be at least 100 billion level of market. (2) The path to industrialization The passage of this certification meeting is an important milestone in finally achieving industrial application, but at the same time, it must be clarified that from passing the product certification meeting to finally achieving industrial application, subsequent steps such as final product release, product mass production, determination of relevant industry standards, and support for relevant policies are also required. 4. Profit forecast and investment suggestions: The main business is growing steadily, and epitaxial expansion is accelerating. By providing an opportunity to extend the industrial chain, Fuchun environmental protection's main business is the cogeneration field of industrial parks. All major bases served by the company have shown a good trend of endogenous growth. Under the trend of continuous environmental pressure, industrial parks have become a trend. Enterprises outside the park are restricted from development and forced relocation due to poor environmental protection standards. It is not only beneficial for existing enterprises in the park to expand production load, but also promote a rapid increase in the number of enterprises entering the park. Industrial parks determined over a long period of time Endogenous growth. The land use area of the industrial base served by the company is only 1/5, and there is huge room for subsequent endogenous growth. Furthermore, all of the company's major bases have achieved ultra-clean flue gas emissions, and bases such as Donggang Thermal Power, Xingang Thermal Power, Jiangsu Thermal Power, and Chang'an Energy all have expansion plans, all of which provide a guarantee for the park's endogenous growth.This time, the rapid online testing technology for dioxins has passed certification, which is an important milestone in the technology's industrialization and an opportunity to promote the vertical expansion of the company in the solid waste disposal industry chain. We estimate that the company's net profit for 17-18 is 40,000 to 590 million yuan, and the company's current market value is 8 billion yuan. If we consider the impact of non-public offerings, the corresponding PE for 2018 is only about 15 times the corresponding PE valuation. The company sees a target market value of 12 billion dollars in the short term and a target market value of 15 billion and 20 billion dollars in the medium and long term, maintaining a “Highly Recommended - A” rating. 5. Risks suggest that the commissioning of new projects is slow; the progress of new business development is lower than expected. The progress of the merger and acquisition fell short of expectations. There is a risk that new technology will not advance as expected. Systemic risk in the general market.

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