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建滔积层板(01888.HK):市场占有率扩大和产品升级;重申推荐评级

中金公司 ·  Dec 6, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Investment recommendations We reconfirm our recommendation rating and raise the target price by 35% to HK$15.3, corresponding to 2.7 times the 2018 net market ratio. The average price of 1H17 Jiantao's copper clad plate rose 32% year on year. We expect the price of copper clad plate to remain stable in 2018, mainly because demand continues to grow and the release of new production capacity is limited. The company is expected to continue growing as its market share expands and products are upgraded. Reason why the price of copper-clad plate is expected to remain stable in 2018: the price of 1H17's copper-clad plate products rose 32% to HK$127, mainly due to the increase in the price of upstream raw materials due to supply shortages. Considering the limited new production capacity and the impact of the peak season, we expect the price of copper clad plate to rise 4% month-on-month in the second half of 2017; considering the increase in demand and the limited release of additional production capacity, especially the increase in PCB demand in the downstream communications and automotive industry, we expect the price of copper clad plate to remain stable in 2018. The market share is expected to increase in 2018, mainly due to the release of upstream production capacity: the company added glass yarn and glass cloth production capacity and began to expand according to plan. The new production capacity is expected to ease the shortage of raw materials. 1H17, due to the shortage of raw materials, copper clad plate shipments fell 8% year on year. With the expansion of production capacity and the advantages of the entire industry chain, we believe that the company's market share is expected to expand further. Furthermore, the main **** competitor of Jiantao laminates is gradually shifting to semiconductor production, which helps the company expand its market share. Product upgrades lead to increased profit margins: According to Prismark data, the company's share of the global halogen-free copper clad plate market reached 1.9% in 2016, a breakthrough. 1H17 high-end copper clad sheets (such as thin sheets and halogen-free copper clad sheets, etc.) contributed 14% of the company's total revenue, compared to 6% in 2016. The company aims for high-end copper-clad plate to account for 30% of revenue by 2019. In the long run, we believe that product upgrades will benefit the company's gross profit margin. Earnings forecasts and valuations take into account that the profit margin exceeded expectations. We raised our earnings per share expectations for FY17 and FY18 by 7% and 22% to HK$1.21 and HK$1.23, respectively. The recommended rating was maintained, and the target price was raised by 35% to HK$15.3, corresponding to 2.7 times the 2018 net market ratio. The company's valuation is lower than the valuation of comparable company Shengyi Technology (3.5 times the 2018 net market ratio), so we think the company is attractive to domestic investors. Risky copper-clad plate prices began to decline; raw material prices fluctuated.

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