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蒙草生态(300355)调研纪要:92号文影响较小 现金流有望快速好转

新時代證券 ·  Nov 29, 2017 00:00  · Researches

The blocking of convertible bond issuance does not hinder the normal progress of related projects: the fundraising projects issued this time are the Wuhai Ecological Construction PPP Project, the Huolingol Ecological Landscape Greening Project PPP Project, and the Wuyuan County Wanmu Modern Agriculture Demonstration Park Upgrading and Renovation Project PPP Project. The company's cash flow will be significantly improved accordingly. Using the financing method of issuing convertible bonds will prolong the financing cycle. After the issuance of convertible bonds is blocked, the company's cash flow will be significantly improved. There have been major changes in the company's financing methods and structure from the past. It has cooperated with state-owned banks, stock banks, local commercial banks, securities companies, and trusts. Banks in the autonomous region have a high level of recognition for the company and are actively connecting with the company for business. The PPP model will improve repayment methods, and the company's cash flow will also improve: the company was in a period of rapid expansion of construction scale in the first three quarters due to a sharp increase in on-hand orders this year. In order to advance the project, operating cash flow was negative due to the large procurement of labor, materials and construction machinery. This is also a reflection of the company's high growth in business. It is expected that as the company's PPP project company completes registration by the end of the year, and benefits from the fact that the company's PPP projects usually use the “811” or “721” model for repayment, we expect the company's operating cash flow to improve and correct at the end of this year or the first half of next year. The company's PPP project is less affected by Document No. 92: For capital penetration: Large-scale projects are basically bid in a consortium manner. Financial institutions or other investors that are one of the winning bidders can inject capital into the project company, so it is not difficult to solve the capital penetration problem. Regarding return risks: It is expected that some non-compliant PPP projects will be cleaned up from now until March 31 next year. First, there is a problem with the “two reviews and one case”; second, the procedures are complete but cannot enter the execution stage; projects in the execution stage will not be subject to clean-up in the first stage. Projects currently under construction by the company will hardly be removed from storage according to current policies, and the company will increase user-paid content for related projects in accordance with the new regulations to adapt to the future trend of PPP projects focusing more on operations. The government attaches importance to the construction of ecological civilization, and the implementation of ecological PPP projects is guaranteed: the current administration attaches importance to the construction of ecological civilization-related projects, and the implementation of ecological and environmental PPP projects is guaranteed. For example, construction of the Baotou subway and pipeline network PPP projects was stopped, but the Baotou Daqingshan project was tendered normally. The Baotou municipal government sorted out PPP projects in its district from scratch after the subway was stopped. Ecological and environmental PPP projects are in line with the spirit of PPP related regulations. Financial forecast and valuation: From 2017 to 2019, net profit of the mother is expected to be 1,07/15.25/2.161 billion yuan, an increase of 196.7%/51.5%/41.7% over the previous year, and the corresponding EPS is 0.63/0.95/1.35 yuan. The current stock price corresponding to PE from 2017 to 2019 is 19.5/12.9/9.1 times, maintaining a “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: PPP project expansion and implementation falls short of expectations, repayment risk, etc.

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