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渤海轮渡(603167)点评:员工持股及股权激励落地 业绩增长超预期

申萬宏源研究 ·  Dec 28, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Investment Highlights: Announcements/News: The company released a draft employee stock ownership plan and equity incentive plan. The employee stock ownership plan plans to issue 120 million subscription plans to 262 employees, including executives, using 1 yuan per subscription unit. The subscription funds are self-funded by employees, and the shares are purchased from the secondary market. The equity incentive plan plans to grant 1.235 million restricted shares to 262 employees, including executives, in the first phase at a price of 6.22 yuan. The ban will be lifted in three installments over the next 5 years. The requirement for lifting the ban is basically an annual profit growth rate of not less than 35%. Equity incentives are in place, and performance is expected to maintain high growth. The equity incentive was calculated based on the closing price of 11.53 yuan on the 27th. The equity incentive return was 85.37%, and the incentive was in place. At the same time, the company proposed an average annual profit increase of not less than 35% to lift the ban, which is expected to greatly motivate management and promote the company's business development. This year, the company benefited from the construction and development of the Shandong Peninsula Blue Special Economic Zone and the improvement of highways. At the same time, passenger traffic and passing vehicles increased appropriately since the beginning of the year. At the same time, the company's passenger fare prices were appropriately raised due to market influence. The domestic passenger roll business revenue reached a record high in the first three quarters, driving the company's total revenue of 1,144 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a sharp increase of 29.74% year on year. Net profit for the first three quarters was 358 million yuan, a sharp increase of 58.89% year on year. As the motivation of the company's management increases, the company's performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly. Actively expand our business and continue to promote the international cruise business. The company is actively developing its business. In the middle of this year, it has successively established Hong Kong and Tianjin financial leasing companies, entering the financial sector, expanding the company's business areas, which are expected to enhance profitability and sustainable development capabilities. At the same time, the company continued to promote the international cruise business. In the first half of the year, the company adhered to a sales model based on charter operations by travel agencies, and developed new cruise routes from Haikou to Vietnam's Halong Bay and Danang, and Xiamen to Miyako and Okinawa in Japan. Finally, it completed 50 cruise routes, an increase of 67% over the previous year; passenger traffic was 241,000, an increase of 5% over the previous year, and the overall cruise business developed steadily. The “Sea Blue Whale” was put into operation, and the international passenger and freighter business between China and South Korea developed steadily. As one of China's closest and most dynamic cities to South Korea, Yantai's total foreign trade import and export volume to South Korea has ranked first among all countries and regions with economic and trade relations with Yantai for many years. South Korea has become an important country for Yantai's economic and trade cooperation. In line with the demand for passenger and cargo transportation business from Yantai to South Korea, the 800-seat “Sea Blue Whale” passenger liner will be put into operation on the Yantai-Pyeongtaek route in June of this year. As trade between China and South Korea continues to develop, the company is expected to make full use of the regional advantages of routes, strengthen market development, and the performance of the international passenger roll business will continue to improve. The profit forecast was raised and the “gain” rating was maintained. Considering that the company's performance in the first three quarters greatly exceeded expectations, and that the implementation of employee shareholding will further improve operating efficiency, we raised our profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2017-2019 is 362 million yuan, 412 million yuan, and 454 million yuan (the original forecast was 312 million yuan, 338 million yuan, and 365 million yuan), and EPS was 0.75 yuan, 0.86 yuan, and 0.94 yuan, corresponding to the current share price PE 15 times, 13 times and 12 times. Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Risk warning: The rise in international oil prices has led to a sharp increase in costs; the volume of passenger business has decreased.

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