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唐德影视(300426):实际控制人持续增持彰显信心 价值投资机会显著

安信證券 ·  Dec 11, 2017 00:00  · Researches

The incident company issued an announcement on December 8, 2017. The actual controller, Mr. Wu Hongliang, plans to increase his holdings of the company's shares through methods permitted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange trading system within 12 months from December 11, 2017. The amount of increase in holdings shall not be less than 30 million yuan, and the cumulative increase in holdings will not exceed 2% of the shares issued by the company. Comment: The actual controller increased the company's shares, demonstrating confidence in the company's development. Mr. Wu Hongliang, the actual controller of the company, once again plans to increase his holdings of the company's shares by 5 million yuan from November 29 to December 4, 2017. After the increase is completed, Mr. Wu Hongliang's cumulative increase in holdings from November 29, 2017 will exceed 5.05 million yuan. Based on the company's closing price of 19 yuan/share on December 8, the cumulative increase in shares held will account for 0.64% of the company's total share capital, accounting for 1.72% of the company's outstanding shares, fully demonstrating his interest Confidence in the company's future performance growth and the company's development prospects protects the company's shareholders' rights. The company successfully passed the review, and the profit from its main business increased significantly throughout the year. The company's 2017 premium drama “Win the World” has successfully passed the review and obtained a distribution license. With the determination of the Internet broadcast platform (Youku) and TV's first broadcast platform (Jiangsu TV, Shanghai Oriental TV), revenue is expected to be confirmed in the fourth quarter. According to the company's announcement, the total price of the first broadcast rights for the TV show is 465 million yuan, the price of the Internet broadcast rights is about 525 million yuan (7.5 million per episode, based on 70 episodes), the total price of the first broadcast rights for the Internet and TV is nearly 1 billion yuan, and the total price of a single episode is about 14 million yuan, which will contribute greatly to the company's performance growth in 2017. At the same time, the company's boutique drama project “Emergency Doctor” has completed the first broadcast, and revenue was confirmed in the fourth quarter, which helped the company's main business grow rapidly throughout the year. The company is rich in reserve projects and is expected to fully benefit from the rapid expansion of the video payment market. According to the company announcement, the company's boutique drama project “Donggong” has already started production and is expected to confirm revenue in 2018; the TV drama projects “A Basket of Parents”, “Singularity”, and “Living with Children” will be launched in the fourth quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018, and are expected to confirm revenue in 2018; the second and third rounds of TV broadcasting rights for the boutique drama “Win the World” are expected to continue to bring in high revenue in 2018. The company's performance in 2018 is expected to continue to grow rapidly. According to data published by major online video websites, the total number of paying users is expected to exceed 120 million in 2017, the total number of paying users is expected to exceed 250 million in 2018, and the payment market size is expected to rise to more than 50 billion. As major online video sites continue to compete fiercely, the price of premium dramas is expected to rise further, and the company is expected to fully benefit from the production capacity and rich reserves of quality dramas. Investment suggestions: The company's actual controllers increased their holdings of the company's shares and promised to continue to increase their holdings fully demonstrating their confidence in the company's development; although the company was recently affected by disputes related to “Good Voice”, it focused on the company's main business. The first broadcast platforms for the 2017 main project “Win the World” on the Internet and TV have been confirmed. It is expected that revenue will be confirmed in the fourth quarter of 2017, and the annual performance growth will be verified; “That year, the full year's performance growth will be verified;” and “Emergency Physicians” and other high-quality projects have proven that the company has leading dramatization capabilities, and the company has a large number of reserve projects, which is expected to fully benefit from content headlines With the further strengthening of power, the continuous rise in online copyright prices, the expansion of premium content market capacity, and diversification of monetization methods, the company's outstanding ability to produce premium dramas is in line with the opportunities for rapid market expansion, and the high growth momentum is obvious. Since the “Good Voice” dispute may have an impact on the company's performance, we expect the company's net profit in 2017 and 2018 to be 241 million yuan (net profit affected by “Good Voice” is estimated to be 370 million yuan) and 480 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding earnings per share are 0.60 yuan (0.93 yuan after deducting non-recurring profit and loss) and 1.20 yuan, respectively. Referring to similar comparable companies for 2018 EPS, they gave a 25X valuation, corresponding to a six-month target price of 30 yuan, maintaining a “buy-A” rating. Risk warning: The distribution progress of the company's TV drama project is lower than expected; the “Good Voice” project may lead to an increase in the amount of the company's bad debts accrued.

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