This report is read as follows:
The overall progress of the investment project is in line with expectations, and the progress and volume of the order exceed market expectations. At present, the installed equipment for rail vehicle manufacturing can meet the needs of sample car production, and the supply of car body profiles has entered the order harvest period, with a target price of 17.02 yuan.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating, with a target price of 17.02 yuan. The company disclosed the overall progress of the scheduled additional investment project on the 12.4 day, the production progress was in line with expectations, and the progress of taking orders exceeded expectations. The equipment installed in the rail vehicle manufacturing system can meet the needs of the production sample car, which is expected to come out before and after the Spring Festival; the rail vehicle project has entered the harvest stage, and now it is mainly the supply of car body profiles, and the follow-up supply of the whole vehicle is worth looking forward to. It maintains the forecast of net profit of 6.96max in 18,029 million, corresponding to EPS of 0.57 and 0.85 yuan, and target price of 17.02 yuan.
The progress of the fund-raising project in 2016 is as good as that in Japan. 2.7 billion of the 3 billion additional funds raised will be used to invest in rail vehicle manufacturing and aluminum profile deep processing construction projects, with the main bearing body being Shenyang Liyuan, a subsidiary. As of today, the equipment installed in the rail vehicle manufacturing system can meet the needs of the production sample car. And according to the previous investigation, the production equipment is basically in place and the production of parts has started. For this, we predict that the trial production of a sample rail vehicle will be basically confirmed before and after the 18-year Spring Festival. The aluminum profile deep processing project is operating at almost full capacity, including the largest domestic supplier of Apple Inc notebook aluminum profiles, and the new car hub processing for Tesla, Inc. through CITIC Daika.
Rail vehicle project has entered the harvest stage, and now it is mainly based on car body profiles, and the follow-up supply of the whole vehicle is worth looking forward to. The company disclosed on the 4th that the complete frame parts of the sightseeing cars supplied to Indonesia through Zhangjiagang Terui are about to be delivered, with an order amount of 10.38 million (including 24 frames). We believe that this batch is only a trial supply stage, and the subsequent supply volume is likely to reach hundreds of sections; the company also accepted 15 long-passenger subway body profiles and 6 Tangke standard integral coupler seat profiles. Looking forward to the medium term, after the sample car comes out, the customers of this kind of car body profile demand will most likely become the downstream customers of the whole vehicle supply, and the order size will increase by 5-8 times.
Catalyst: the acceleration of subway construction in Northeast China brings the purchasing demand of car body; the order of rail transit vehicle.
Core risk: the progress of rail transit vehicle acceptance is slower than expected.