Core ideas:
Obtain the reconstruction project of Nanhu village and actively participate in the construction of the new city of the Yangtze River
On the evening of November 17, 17, the company issued an announcement and won the reconstruction project of Nanhu Village, Huangpi District, Wuhan. The project belongs to the core area of the Yangtze River New City and the start-up area of the first phase, with a superior geographical location, involving a land area of about 2 million square meters. The Yangtze River New City is the key development area of Wuhan in the next 30-50 years. The floor cost per unit area of the Nanhu Village renovation project is no more than 2500 yuan / square meter, and the overall volume ratio of the project is about 3.0. the average sales price of residential projects on the south side of Tianxingzhou Bridge and across the river is 12000 yuan / square meters. the average sales price of the projects currently on sale around the project is 8000-9000 yuan, and the gross profit margin of Jianan cost company is also more than 40%. It is obviously higher than the profit level of land acquired by signboards.
Active business development in the second half of the year, promising high performance growth in the future
In the past 14 years, the company has not obtained any land reserves in the open market, and 17 years has been a year of change in the company's attitude. the company has shown a strong demand for scale growth since the second half of the year. the scale of land expansion has increased significantly by means of acquisition, old reform and overall development of the area, and the cumulative new resource planning floor area has reached 8.14 million square meters. At the same time, put forward the equity incentive plan, the target is to sell 110,150,50 yuan in 17,18,19 years, and the performance commitment compound growth rate will reach 20 billion.
It is estimated that the EPS for 17 and 18 years will be 1.11 yuan and 1.44 yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating.
The acquisition of the Yangtze River New City old renovation project has further consolidated the company's land reserve scale in Wuhan, and the land price advantage is significant. As a resource-based enterprise, with the accelerated pace of sales and performance release, the enterprise value will also increase. The total NAV size of the company's reserves is 26.7 billion yuan. According to the total share capital of 949 million shares before the implementation of this equity incentive plan, the level of NAV per share is about 28.2 yuan per share, with a discount rate as high as 56.6%. It is estimated that the EPS in 17 and 18 years is 1.11 yuan and 1.44 yuan respectively, and the PE level is 11.01 x 8.49x according to the stop price on November 3.
Risk hint
The sales performance is greatly affected by the policy of Wuhan, and there is uncertainty about the progress of project expansion outside the province.
