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惠理集团(806.HK):年关兑现

申萬宏源研究 ·  Dec 19, 2017 00:00  · Researches

At the end of November 2017, Value Partners Group's asset management scale (AUM) reached US$16.8 billion, a decrease of 2.9% over the previous month and an increase of 21.7% over the previous year. The net asset value (NAV) (about 50% of the size of assets under management) of the company's main funds exceeded the high water mark by an average of 29% (most of the high water mark was recorded in 2014). As the end of the year approaches, we expect the company to record significant performance fees in 2017. We maintain the company's 17-19 EPS forecast at HK$0.99/0.61/0.63 (up 1314%/-38%/3% year over year). We adjusted our target price from HK$9.98 in '17 to HK$9.40 in '18. In response to the 16% increase, we downgraded our rating to increase our holdings. Definite prospects. The vast majority of the company's own brand funds will be settled at the end of the year. We expect that the reversal in the net asset value of the company's main funds will cause the company to record impressive performance fees in 2017. According to our sensitivity tests, a 1% increase in net asset value would increase the company's performance expenses by 4% in 2017. The average net asset value of the company's main funds (accounting for about 50% of the size of assets under management) exceeded the high water mark by 29% (most of the high water mark was recorded in 2014). Meanwhile, under the current favorable market conditions, we expect the company to record significant fair value net income and confirmed revenue of approximately HK$150 million. Net inflow of capital. At the end of November 2017, Value Partners Group's asset management scale (AUM) reached US$16.8 billion, a decrease of 2.9% over the previous month and an increase of 21.7% over the previous year. In the first three quarters of 2017, there was a net increase of $400 million in fund size (net outflow of $1.8 billion in fund size in the first nine months of 2016), of which subscriptions were $5.9 billion (up 103% year over year) and redemptions were $5.5 billion (up 17% year over year). We believe that continued net capital inflows will help the company increase profit margins throughout the year. At the same time, we maintain the company's 2017 asset management forecast of $17 billion, up 28% year over year. This will increase the company's profit margin throughout the year, and at the same time ensure that the company records stable year-over-year management fee revenue. The rating was downgraded to increased holdings. We expect market sentiment to continue to rise, so we expect the company's products to perform even better in 2017, leading to higher performance fees. We have improved the company's asset management scale forecast at the end of 2017, and based on the assumption that the company's main fund yield in 2017 is 25% and the yield in 2018 and 2019 is 15%, we maintain the company's forecast of HK$0.99/0.61/0.63 in 17-19, with a year-on-year increase of 1314%/-38%/3%. We adjusted our target price from HK$9.98 in '17 to HK$9.40 in '18. In response to the 16% increase, we downgraded our rating to increase our holdings.

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