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保利协鑫能源(03800.HK):预期的产能扩张将拉动增长 重申“买入”

國泰君安國際 ·  Dec 13, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  In the first nine months of 2017, the country's new PV installed capacity exceeded 40 gigawatts. According to data from the Energy Administration, the domestic PV installed capacity reached 43 gigawatts in the first nine months of 2017, an increase of 109.8% over the previous year, while the cumulative installed PV capacity was 120.4 GW at the end of the third quarter. We expect the 50 gigawatts of new installed capacity this year to surpass the 50 gigawatt mark, and no less than 30 gigawatts of new installed capacity each year from 2018 to 2020. The country is expected to have a cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity of about 250 gigawatts by the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The production capacity of polysilicon and silicon wafers is expected to increase significantly in 2018. After the new plant in Xinjiang was put into operation in 2018 and diamond wire slicing technology was fully adopted in 2018, we expect the company's polysilicon production capacity to rise to 115 kilotons by the end of the year, while silicon wafer production capacity will rise to 25 gigawatts, up 53.3% and 25.0% year-on-year respectively. In anticipation of capacity expansion, we have raised our current profit forecast. As demand for solar energy in domestic and international markets is expected to continue to grow at a rapid pace in the future, we believe that manufacturers of photovoltaic materials are bound to benefit the most. The capacity expansion achieved in 2018 will also contribute positively to the company's growth. Our adjusted net profit per share for the 2017/2018/2019 fiscal year was RMB 0.128, RMB 0.167 and RMB 0.178, respectively. We raised our target price to HK$1.50 and maintained the company's “buy” investment rating. We continue to be optimistic about the future of the solar industry and GCL Poly Energy. Our new target price is equivalent to the company's 10.0x/ 7.6x/ 7.1 times 2017/2018/ 2019 price-earnings ratio or 1.0x/ 0.9 times the 2017/2018 net price-earnings ratio.

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