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唐德影视(300426):公司高管执行增持计划 彰显对公司未来发展信心

中泰證券 ·  Nov 30, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Key investment events: The company announced on November 29 that Chairman Wu Hongliang increased his holdings of some of the company's shares through centralized bidding through the stock trading system of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The number of shares increased was 462,200 shares, the average increase price was 20.253 yuan/share, and the increase was 9.369 million yuan, accounting for 0.12% of the total share capital. Based on confidence in the company's future development prospects and recognition of the company's value, after this increase in holdings, Mr. Wu Hongliang will continue to increase his holdings in the company's shares in accordance with the company's holdings increase plan disclosed on July 20. Comment: Chairman Wu Zongzheng shows confidence in the future development of Tangde Film and Television. We believe that the company is currently in a value depression. In the early stages of Tangde Film and Television, stock prices fell sharply due to changes in the copyright of “... Good Voice”. Our earlier analysis concluded that the impact of this incident on Tang De may be a one-off event. In the future, the company will still explore the development of a variety show program. From the most prudent point of view, the $18.75 million license fees and related taxes already paid by the company to Talpa may not be recovered, and this portion of the capital may account for asset impairment losses. However, we expect the project to have a limited impact on the company's future performance, so the market has fully reflected the risk of a good voice incident. In addition, Tang De's main business is still focused on the field of premium film and television content. The copyright for the first round of “Win the World” broadcast online has been settled, and the company's ability to create top content has been verified once again. We believe that the competitiveness of the company's continued development in the future is still being consolidated and strengthened. Therefore, after the fall in stock prices affected by the Black Swan incident, it is in a value slump and has layout value. Tang De Film and Television continues to produce a number of phenomenal content to verify its creative and distribution capabilities in the field of top leading movies and TV dramas. We believe that in the future, demand for content in the film and television market will continue to trend upward, and that high-quality content has more bargaining power in the market, so film and television companies that produce high-quality leading content on a sustainable basis have more investment value. In December 2014, “The Legend of Wu Mei Niang”, produced and distributed exclusively by Tang De, began broadcasting. The drama continued to set new ratings records for the same period during the broadcast period and won the title of the top ten influential TV dramas of the year at the 2015 National Drama Festival; in August 2017, “That Year's Flowers Blossomed, and the Moon Blossomed”, directed by Tang De and directed by Ding Hei, began broadcasting on Oriental TV and Jiangsu TV. In October 2017, the ratings for the two stations soared to break 3%, and the total ratings for the two stations broke 5%; in October 2017, Tang De signed the exclusive writer to participate in the creation of Juanjuan “Emergency Physician” was broadcast on Oriental TV and Beijing TV It remained at the top of the ratings list during the broadcast period. The company's film and television talents gather, reserve a wealth of film and television projects, and make future development a favorable time and place. As a comprehensive film and television group, Tangde Film and Television has an enlightened mindset for win-win cooperation with industry talents. Its producers, directors, screenwriters, entertainers and other talents gather, and there is no shortage of leading domestic creators and stars, such as Gao Yijun, Ding Hei, Xu Hongyu, Wei Zi, Juan Zi, Fan Bingbing, Zhao Wei, and Zhang Fengyi, to form Tangde Film's future soft power in market competition. Furthermore, the company currently has a wealth of film and television projects in reserve, laying the foundation for the company's long-term growth in the future. According to Tangde Film and Television's announcements, public information, and our analysis and judgment, we expect the company to have prepared no less than 20 film and television projects in 2017 and 2018. The development prospects of Tangde Film and Television are improving, and we continue to focus on recommendations. We believe that the fundamentals and performance of Tang De Film and Television are on the rise and with high certainty. At the same time, it has an advanced strategic layout pattern. The content production side has already entered three major fields, and each field has phenomenal project reserves (quality dramas, movies, and variety shows). At the same time, Tang De is actively targeting offline channel layout (cinema). Currently, the theater layout is in the early stages, and is expected to become a new growth point for the company's business and performance in the future. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestion: Profit Forecast: Since Tangde Film and Television has already paid $18.75 million in license fees and related taxes for the Good Sound Project, and there is some uncertainty about the project's future profit contribution, from a prudential perspective, we adjusted the company's 2017 and 2018 profit forecasts. It is estimated that Tangde Film and Television will achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 219 million yuan and 501 million yuan respectively in 2017-2018 (the factors affecting profit in 2017 are only the asset impairment of the Good Voice Project). According to the estimate of the company's current total share capital of 400 million shares, we expect the company's EPS for 2017-2018 to be 0.55 yuan and 1.25 yuan, respectively. Investment advice: We believe that in the future, Tang De Film and Television will perform well in the fields of phenomenal leading content (TV series, movies, and variety shows) production and distribution, channel resource layout, artist brokerage business upgrades, new Internet media exploration, overseas strategic layout, and pan-entertainment platform construction. The company uses the capital market to enter a new stage of rapid growth, and is expected to become a dark horse in the media sector and buy ratings. Risk warning: The broadcast results of films such as “Win the World” fell short of expectations; the impact of A-share market sentiment and financial aspects; regulatory policy risks; and the risk of declining profitability due to rising production costs for film and television content.

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