share_log

安信信托(600816)深度研究:行业转型期具有核心竞争力的信托标的

廣發證券 ·  Dec 6, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Core view: Two fixed increases+private ownership mechanism catalyzed rapid growth in performance. The company was formerly known as Anshan Trust and Investment Company and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 1994. In 2002, Guozhijie became the largest shareholder, divesting debt and injecting assets into the company. The company's capital strength was complemented. Coupled with the flexible private sector mechanism, the company entered a period of rapid development: from 2011 to 2016, the annualized growth rates of revenue and net profit reached 60% and 73% respectively, far exceeding the industry's levels of 20% and 21%. Strong active management ability is the core competitiveness that distinguishes it from peers. A company's core competitiveness lies in its ability to actively manage trusts. On the one hand, this is because the company focuses on actively managed projects, and its share increased from 38% in 2012 to 60% at the end of 2016, while the industry mostly uses channel business impulses; on the other hand, the company has strict project screening and supervision, and “production” is relatively low. Active management brings strong profitability. The return rate of trusts for active management of liquidated projects rose to 4.23% in 2016, and achieved a comprehensive annualized trust return rate of 1.55%, far higher than the industry's 0.75% level at the end of the fourth quarter of 2016. Diversify inherent business investment and enhance profit stability. In 2014 and 2015, the company raised a total of 13.1 billion yuan in capital through two fixed increases. Coupled with profit retention, the company's inherent assets have grown rapidly in recent years, which strongly supports the development of trust business and risk control, and uses inherent assets to make diversified investments and achieve diversification of business income. The company is actively investing in equity. It has participated in Yingkou Bank, Lu Commercial Bank, and Bohai Life Insurance. The company announced that it plans to participate in the China CITIC Bank (International) fixed increase to further strengthen the financial architecture. Under the new asset management regulations, active management ability and capital strength are building a new round of competitiveness and new asset management regulations, which directly restrict the development of channel business, nesting and other businesses in the trust industry. Under the “high initiative, low channel” business structure, the company was less adversely affected by the shrinking volume of channel business. It is estimated that the affected trust business revenue was about 1.13-225 million yuan, accounting for 2.5% to 3% of total revenue in 2016, with little impact. However, sufficient capital and business experience will help the company adjust faster and reduce the impact of business shocks. The company is planning a non-public offering of preferred shares and plans to raise no more than 6.8 billion yuan to supplement net capital. After completion, the company's net capital is nearly 18 billion yuan, ranking among the top in the industry. Business development is rooted in the real economy, and has a stronger ability to adapt and develop into innovative models such as real stock and real debt, integration of industry and finance, and investment and loan linkage. MSCI's boosting effect MSCI announced that A-shares will be included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Anxin Trust is ranked as a diversified financial target, and international investor entry and passive allocation have a boosting effect. The investment proposal does not consider the impact of the non-public offering of preferred shares on the company's operations and net assets for the time being. It is estimated that the company's operating income in 2017\ 2018\ 2019 will be 62.33\ 73.58\ 8.05 billion, net profit will be 36.12\ 42.63\ 5.05 billion, net profit will be 36.12\ 42.63\ 5.05 billion, and EPS will be 0.79\ 0.94\ 1.11 per share, respectively. The company's strong capital strength and strong active management ability have core competitiveness during the period of industry transformation, and are rated as prudent in increasing holdings. Risks indicate a decline in macroeconomic and industry sentiment, large short-term fluctuations in interest rates due to multiple factors, stricter implementation of new asset management regulations than expected, intensification of industry competition, serious risk incidents in the company's survival projects, and severe fluctuations in the secondary market.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment