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科森科技(603626)调研简报:小件走向大件 支撑百亿金属结构件航母

東興證券 ·  Nov 27, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Report summary: In the process of changing the product structure from small to large, the company's performance will accelerate upward in the next three years. In the next three years, the company will enjoy the following three development dividends: (1) The value of large stand-alone machines is far higher than that of small parts, and the corresponding market capacity is far higher than that of small parts (2). The consumption of large items on the company's R&D resources and management resources is far lower than that of small parts. The efficiency of the company's use of resources will increase dramatically. (3) The company occupies the technological highland of medical structural components, and its ability to replicate innovative processes to consumer electronics far exceeds that of its peers. The company deeply serves Apple's demand for customized metal structural parts. The product line structure has moved from small metal parts to large metal parts, opening up space for long-term growth over three years. The total value of stand-alone devices in the small product lines of buttons, mobile phone rings, and signs is around 50 yuan. The stand-alone value of stainless steel mobile phone frames, laptop bottom cases, and large laptop Hinge will reach hundreds of yuan, and the value of stand-alone computers will rise dramatically. The industrial shift trend is spreading from the metal precision processing industry to its upstream CNC equipment. Localization of CNC equipment is a major trend in the next few years. New entrants to large metal parts generally use domestic CNC equipment, which has formed a great advantage in the production cost of large metal parts. We believe that the localization of CNC will drive the reshaping of the metal parts processing industry. Corson Technology has accumulated rich precision processing technology for small parts, and it is relatively easy to replicate mature process technology for large products. On the other hand, it has entered the development path of large products very smoothly with the cost advantages of domestic CNC equipment. Company profit forecast and investment rating: We predict that the company's 2017-2019 operating income will be 2,322 billion yuan, 4,084 billion yuan and 5.280 billion yuan respectively, net profit of 273 million yuan, 511 million yuan and 647 million yuan respectively, and EPS of 0.93, 1.73 and 2.20 million yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponding to P/E is 37.63 times, 20.14 times and 15.89 times, giving it a “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: New product development for major customers falls short of expectations

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