Main points of investment:
The "coal to gas" policy and LNG's own economy boost demand. With the increasingly serious problem of air pollution, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other places to strengthen the "coal to gas" policy, driving the prosperity of the natural gas industry. Compared with diesel and pipeline gas, the economy of LNG is prominent. Compared with diesel fuel, the calorific value difference of LNG increased from 51.1yuan per million British thermal units in September 2016 to 72.8yuan per million British thermal units in September 2017. At the same time, compared with pipeline gas, LNG point supply has both flexible and cheap advantages. Take Tianjin, Jinan, Shandong, and Hebei Province as examples, from March to July 2017, the difference between industrial pipeline gas market price and LNG delivery price continued to expand. By August 2017, according to data from Treasure Island, the cubic price difference between industrial pipeline gas market price and LNG delivery price in the three places reached 0.53,1.1yuan and 0.68yuan respectively. When the tank size of LNG gasification station is 100,300,600,900m3 respectively, and the return on investment is 15%, the price increase of Tianjin, Jinan and Hebei LNG gasification stations fluctuates between 0.12-0.24 yuan per cubic meter, which is significantly smaller than the difference between the current industrial pipeline gas market price and LNG delivery price, so LNG point supply has good economy.
From the supply point of view, the price advantage of imported LNG is obvious than that of domestic LNG. The sufficient supply of LNG superimposes the low international oil price factors, resulting in the low international LNG price. In the environment of low international LNG price, imported LNG has obvious gas source cost advantage compared with domestic LNG; at the same time, because the location of LNG receiving station is closer to the downstream consumer market, imported LNG has freight cost advantage. Take Shandong as an example, the domestic gas delivery price is 4200-4500 yuan / ton, and the Qingdao LNG receiving station delivery price is 3950-4150 yuan / ton.
The company has strong distribution ability, and the fundamentals of the beneficiary industry continue to improve. The company is a domestic LNG distribution oligarch, and its holding subsidiary Huaheng Logistics ranked third among LNG distribution enterprises in 2015. On September 13, 2017, the company announced that the non-public offering has been approved by the CSRC. According to the previous plan, some of the funds raised will be used to increase the number of LNG tankers, with a substantial increase in capacity, laying a solid foundation for expansion and fully enjoying the growth dividend of the industry.
Profitability and valuation. We estimate that the EPS of the company in 17-19 is 0.45,0.86 and 0.89 yuan respectively. The 18-year average forecast PE of the listed companies in the natural gas industry chain is 19.7 times, but considering that the company's 18-year net profit is expected to achieve 91.4% growth, which is higher than the 54.7% level of its competitors in the same industry, the company is given a valuation premium, with an estimated 18-year 30-fold forecast PE, with a target price of 25.8 yuan.
Risk hint. The company's LNG vehicles are not as expected, and traditional logistics continues to lose money.
