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MI能源(1555.HK):油气价格趋稳 收购CQ ENERGY料有助改善业绩;首予「中性」评级

MI Energy (1555.HK): Steady oil and gas prices and the acquisition of CQ ENERGY are expected to help improve performance; first “neutral” rating

致富證券 ·  Nov 17, 2017 00:00  · Researches

The gradual trend balance between crude oil supply and demand - crude oil prices have stabilized in the last year since a cliff-style decline in mid-2014. Currently, the main favorable factors in the crude oil market are crude oil production reduction agreements achieved by OPEC member countries limiting crude oil supply supply and increasing crude oil demand due to the recovery of the global economy as a whole. However, the space for crude oil prices to rise is also limited by rising crude oil production in the US; therefore, it is expected that the balance between these favorable factors will continue. It hovers between $50 per barrel and $60 per barrel. Natural gas prices can be picked up by an upward trajectory - in the last six months, the price of New York gas futures has dropped by about 10% year-on-year, mainly because according to Baker Hughes data, as of October 13 this year, the US and Canada have drilled 285 natural gas wells, 105 more than the same period last year, greatly dragging down natural gas prices; however, there is a strong demand for relatively clean natural gas in China, which is fed up with air pollution. In addition, the US has a continuous demand for clean natural gas. Upgraded, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also reported earlier in “2017 The “Natural Gas Report” indicates that the annual growth rate of natural gas demand from this year to 2022 will increase by 0.1% to 1.6%; therefore, it is expected that natural gas prices will gradually rise in the next year. The acquisition of CQ Energy will help balance the oil and gas products union - CQ Energy has a number of undeveloped land with the potential to increase the production of natural gas resources. The acquisition of CQ Energy Changyuan will help the group expand its business to the global level, balance the oil and gas products group, and increase group revenue. However, in the short term, the group may need to invest more funds to increase CQ Energy's production, and currently has limited cash on hand, so it faces the risk of insufficient funds; however, considering that CQ Energy has recorded operating cash inflows over the past three fiscal years, plus its own financing capacity, it helps it pay for future capital expenses. As a result, it is anticipated that CQ Energy will have a limited cash burden on the Group. Investment Strategy - MI Energy's acquisition of CQ Energy may improve the group's overall profitability, but its positive effects may take longer to be reflected. However, short-term results still depend on fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices. Currently, energy prices are generally stable. I believe the Group's profit performance is not very pleasing; investors can wait and see ahead.

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