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米格国际(01247.HK):受益于行业蓬勃的一个童装品牌 首次给予“买入”评级

MIG International (01247.HK): a children's clothing brand benefiting from the booming industry is given a "buy" rating for the first time.

國泰君安國際 ·  Dec 2, 2014 00:00  · Researches

MIG's "Red Boy" brand, with medium and high-grade children's clothing as its positioning, will benefit from the growth of the industry and will benefit from the growth of the industry. Euromonitor predicts that China's children's wear market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10.8% from 2013 to 2018. The gradual relaxation of the one-child policy has provided support for child-related consumption. Due to the increase in disposable income, the middle-to-high-end market is expected to grow the fastest.

Strong growth in e-commerce. Online products are tailored to cater to the preferences of young parents. This group of parents have higher IT skills. E-commerce contributed less than 0.3 per cent of total sales in 2010 and has since expanded rapidly, accounting for 18.6 per cent of total sales in 2013. We estimate that the company's e-commerce business grew at a compound annual growth rate of 17.3% from 2013 to 2016 and accounted for about 20% of total sales in 2016.

For the first time, it gives a "buy" rating and a target price of HK $1.52. Driven by the growth of ecommerce business and the laying of stores, revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 14.2 per cent from 2013 to 2016. Due to the dilution effect after listing and the cost of listing, we expect earnings per share to fall 13.8% in 2014 compared with the same period last year. Our earnings per share forecasts for 2014 / 2015 / 2016 are RMB 0.175 / med 0.204 / prime 0.224, respectively. On a comparable basis, we set a target price of HK $1.52 per share, which is equivalent to 6.9 times, 5.9 times and 5.4 times 2014, 2015 and 2016, respectively.

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