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蒙草生态(300355):可转债被否无碍 政府付费PPP模式可持续性强

新時代證券 ·  Nov 14, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Various financing channels guarantee whether convertible bonds will not hinder normal operations: The company's recent rapid growth in business scale has led to an increase in capital requirements, and operating cash has been replenished through various channels. On August 11, with permission from the Securities Regulatory Commission, the company was approved to publicly issue green corporate bonds of no more than RMB 250 million; at the same time, on September 20 and October 18, the company issued the first and second ultra-short-term financing notes of 2017, with a total issuance amount of 500 million yuan and 300 million yuan respectively, for a period of 270 days. The company has a variety of financing channels. Whether convertible bonds are issued will have a significant impact on the normal operation of the company. The benefits of ecological and environmental protection PPP projects that rely on government payments are more secure: most of the company's projects are ecological and environmental protection PPP projects. The scope of implementation complies with the “Notice on Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Government and Social Capital Cooperation Model in the Field of Public Services”. It is a government-paid PPP project. The required funds are included in the government's annual budget and medium- to long-term financial plans and reported to the National People's Congress for approval, and the funding needs of the project are ensured through a resolution of the National People's Congress. It can be seen from this that compared to the cost recovery and profit acquisition of the project company in user-paid PPP projects, which are directly linked to the actual demand of project users, the benefits of ecological and environmental protection PPP projects that rely on government payments are more guaranteed. The number of orders in hand is sufficient, and the guaranteed performance is high: the company has signed a total of 25.392 billion yuan in new contracts up to now in 2017, 6 times the order for the full year of 2016, and the implementation of orders is accelerating; of these, the investment in PPP projects was 24.576 billion yuan, accounting for 96.79% of the new contracts signed; the total number of new orders signed since 2016 was 29.646 billion yuan, compared to the revenue of 2,861 billion yuan in 2016, the guaranteed order revenue ratio is about 10.36 billion yuan, and the order revenue guarantee ratio is about 10.36 billion yuan. At the same time, the framework agreements signed by the company with local governments since 2016 have reached 53.87 billion yuan. The scale is huge and the certainty of conversion orders is extremely strong. The company's future performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly. Ecological construction projects have broad prospects driven by policies: since the 18th National Congress, the Party Central Committee has attached great importance to the construction of ecological civilization and environmental protection, included them at the height of the “Five in One” overall layout and the “Four Comprehensive” strategic layout, and included “Beautiful China” in the 13th Five-Year Plan. The 19th National Congress further emphasized that building ecological civilization is the millennial plan for the sustainable development of the Chinese nation, and that the idea that green water and green mountains are golden mountains and silver mountains must be established and implemented. The company undertakes mostly local soil desertification control projects in Inner Mongolia. As an ecological barrier for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Province, Inner Mongolia has a high geographical importance, and will continue to benefit from ecological civilization construction policies in the future. Financial forecast and valuation: The company is expected to achieve net profit of 1,07/15.25/2.161 billion yuan from 2017 to 2019, a year-on-year increase of 196.7%/51.5%/41.7%, corresponding EPS of 0.63/0.95/1.35 yuan. The current stock price corresponding to PE from 2017 to 2019 is 20.1/13.3/9.4 times, maintaining a “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: PPP project expansion and implementation falls short of expectations, repayment risk, etc.

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