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晨曦航空(300581)三季报点评:三季度业绩企稳 新兴业务有望造就新增长点

中信建投 ·  Nov 11, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  On the 26th of the incident, the company released its three-quarter report. The first three quarters of 2017 achieved revenue of 114 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.45%, and net profit of 22.55 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.15%. A brief review of the aero-engine electronics business is good. The company's performance grew rapidly in the third quarter. The company is based in the aviation sector. Its main business is R&D, production, sales of aviation mechanical and electrical products and the provision of related professional technical services. The main products and services cover the fields of aeronautical inertial navigation, aero-engine electronics and drones. The company's asset impairment losses in the first three quarters of 2017 were 8.037 million yuan, an increase of 76.04% over the previous year. Mainly due to the increase in the company's accounts receivable, the proposed bad debt preparations increased accordingly. However, since the company's customers were mainly the domestic military, domestic A-share listed companies and their subsidiaries, the risk of recovering accounts receivable was small. Up to now, the company has had no bad debts. During the reporting period, the company achieved net profit of 5.986 million yuan, an increase of 77.12% over the previous year. The reason for the rapid increase in performance in the third quarter was mainly due to the concentration of military contract deliveries undertaken by the company in the second half of the year. Leading the aviation inertial navigation industry, the company with broad future prospects is the only private enterprise in China engaged in the production and sale of aviation inertial guidance products. The products are widely used in helicopters, transport aircraft, drones, etc., and occupy a large market share. Other competitors include national teams such as the Xi'an Institute of Automatic Flight Control, Aerospace Electronics, and the 33rd Institute of Aerospace Science and Industry. Inertial navigation has characteristics such as autonomous navigation, strong anti-interference ability, and traceability of attitude information, etc., and has rigid requirements in the military field. According to our estimates, the total market space brought by new aircraft installations in the next 20 years is 167 billion US dollars. As the inflection point of China's new military aircraft installation continues to approach, the aviation inertial guidance industry will simultaneously usher in huge development opportunities, and future development prospects are broad. Aviation development control technology is becoming electronic, and the new business will create new growth companies focusing on helicopter power systems and continuously expanding the scope of market applications, including helicopter power system status collection and processing and database application products, and digital control transformation of old models of turbo-axis engines. The company has developed and produced collector products that can be applied to double- and three-engine helicopter platforms, and is a leader in the field of helicopter engine parameter collectors in China. As a replacement product for mechanical hydraulic electronic control systems, the full-authority digital electronic control system currently being vigorously promoted by the company has completed pre-research project acceptance and achieved professional technical service revenue. It is estimated that in the next 10 years, China's aero-engine electronics market will be 24-3.6 billion US dollars. Once the full-authority digital electronic control system is mass-produced, it will add a major performance growth point to the company in the future. As an unmanned target aircraft, the company's first-generation drone has successfully entered the military market, can meet the application needs of military training, exercises, etc., and has achieved cumulative sales revenue of 4.1538 million yuan. On the basis of first-generation drones, the company will combine existing relevant technology to further develop highly intelligent, expandable and multi-functional drone systems, which will greatly expand the company's business field. After the drone business is industrialized and sales revenue is formed, it will become another performance growth point for the company. Profit forecasting and investment ratings: The prospects for conventional navigation and aviation electronics products are promising, emerging businesses are expected to create new growth points, maintain the habitual direction of increasing holdings of rating companies and promising prospects for aviation electronics products. Helicopter parameter collectors, digital electronic control systems, and drones are expected to bring new performance growth points to the company; as military inertial navigation moves towards deep civil-military integration, there is plenty of room for the company to develop upward. We continue to be optimistic about the company's future development prospects. We predict that the company's net profit from 2017 to 2019 will be 57 million yuan, 69 million yuan, and 89 million yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 10%, 20%, and 30% respectively. The corresponding EPS from 17 to 19 was 0.64, 0.77, and 1.00 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 61, 51, and 39 times, respectively, maintaining the rating and giving a rating of increase in holdings.

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