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亚翔集成(603929)深度研究:IC与面板投资爆发最先受益标的 项目良率大陆第一体现强大护城河

申萬宏源研究 ·  Nov 14, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The cleanroom industry in the high-end electronics industry has entered a period of explosion, and IC and panel cleanrooms are about to become a 100 billion market. The semiconductor and panel industry has led to a period of investment explosion. In the past three or four years, the average annual investment growth rate of 40% has been determined, and the long-term average annual investment has maintained a growth rate of close to 20%. According to estimates, the cleanroom market in the electronics industry reached 20 billion in 2016 and will be close to 60 billion yuan by 2019. The market space is large and the growth rate is fast. The clean room industry in the high-end electronics industry has high barriers and high concentration. 1) The concentration of the industry is high. The electronics industry has a high concentration of clean rooms, with five companies accounting for 90% of the market. In terms of engineering design, Taiji Industrial and Shiyuan occupy an absolute position. For cleanroom construction, CLP 2, CLP 4, Yaxiang Integrated, Jiangxi Hantang, and MW occupy 90% of the market. 2) Industry barriers are extremely high, and long-term project experience is required to ensure the yield quality of terminal products. The cleanroom engineering service industry has high barriers, and only a few companies are working in the industry. The requirements for technology, project experience, capital, and qualifications are very high. Only the accumulation of long-term operating experience can guarantee the yield of the final product. The company has rich project experience and is highly recognized by owners. The company's customers include many internationally renowned semiconductor manufacturers. At present, it has accumulated more than 2.123,600 square meters of cleanroom construction experience, and has continued to win bids for major projects from owners such as TSMC, SMIC, Hefei Changxin, Fujian Jinhua, and Shentianma. The completed project has the highest yield in mainland China and has been widely recognized by the market. The high-end electronics industry clean room technology requirements are extremely high, and the company has industry-leading core technology. The company has applied for 46 patents, and has also digitized many years of engineering experience in the IC semiconductor and optoelectronics industry production process and product yield databases to provide data support for the company's subsequent underwriting and implementation of engineering projects. In addition, the company has industry-leading “computational fluid dynamics analysis application technology” and “air sampling and analysis technology”, which can provide customers with pre-simulation analysis and post-sampling analysis, optimize clean room layout, improve production processes, reduce production costs, and improve finished product yield, and greatly improve the stability and reliability of cleanroom engineering. The company is also developing micro-vibration measurement technology for molecular air pollution control. The highest level of cleanliness requires customers to build clean rooms. The next generation of clean technology has taken the lead, and there are many things to look forward to in the future. The company has taken the lead in the three major industry trends of high-end clean technology, such as ① price competition to value competition, ② energy-saving clean rooms, and ③ control of airborne molecular pollutants. The country's leading clean room R&D base has provided the company with a steady stream of technological breakthroughs. The company is one of the leading companies with the highest yield in IC and panel cleanroom projects in mainland China. Benefiting from the rapid growth of IC and panel investment in 17-19, the company has strong project experience and a technical moat. The first benefit is the highest certainty, coverage for the first time, and is given a “buy” rating. The company's revenue for 17/18/19 is estimated to be 27/35/46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%/29.9%/31.8%, net profit of 2.3/3.15/437 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39%/37.1%/39%, and EPS per share of 1.08/1.48/2.05 yuan, corresponding to 17/18/19 PE 32/23/17 times, respectively. According to the profit forecast, the company is expected to be valued 32 times in '17, the average valuation of comparable companies in '17 is 45 times, and the stock price space exceeds 40%, giving it a “buy” rating.

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