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科森科技(603626)深度研究:聚焦大客户 苹果链外观件新秀

興業證券 ·  Nov 9, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Investment point A customer's metal case orders are expected to gradually shift to mainland manufacturers. In 2017, the smartphone metal case market (including metal back cover+metal middle frame) was 115.3 billion yuan, of which the A customer phone case market alone reached 51.7 billion yuan, accounting for more than 45%. This part of the order was profitable, and **** manufacturer Foxconn became a basic monopoly. In 2017, customer A's new-generation iPhone8/8Plus and iPhoneX both adopted a new case design scheme, and the Unibody aluminum alloy body was improved to a metal middle frame (aluminum/stainless steel) +glass back cover. Through this change in technology route, customer A gradually introduced more suppliers, especially mainland metal manufacturers that have competitive strength with **** manufacturers in terms of supply chain response speed, yield climbing, and cost improvement. In addition to Phone products, case orders for Pad/Mac products are also expected to be transferred one after another. In the future, mainland manufacturers will share more lucrative A customer orders. Keson Technology entered a new growth cycle with large metal parts for customer A. Previously, the company mainly supplied small metal parts for customer A. As the company's process became more mature and cooperation deepened, the number of materials gradually increased. In 2017, the company cooperated with JP to win a large share of A customer's new metal frame (aluminum/stainless steel), and the value of the stand-alone phone increased dramatically. The company also officially switched from a customer A small parts supplier to a large supplier, and its status improved markedly. There is plenty of room for future cooperation with A customers, and it is expected to share more large product numbers. Judging that this year will be the starting point for a new round of growth cycle. I am optimistic about the company's performance flexibility and long-term customer share growth trend, and give it an “gain” rating. Orders for metal exterior parts for customer A series products are gradually shifting to mainland suppliers. Corson is gradually moving from small metal parts to large parts from customer A, and will be the first mainland manufacturer to receive profitable customer A's mobile phone case orders, and the performance flexibility is huge. EPS is expected to be 0.96, 2.03, and 2.80 yuan respectively in 2017-19, and the corresponding PE is 45, 21, and 16X, maintaining the “gain” rating. Risk warning: competition intensifies, customer sales fall short of expectations

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