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中原证券(601375)三季报点评:河南A+H券商 立足河南 面向全国

海通證券 ·  Nov 1, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The only corporate securities company in Henan, and the A+H listing financing capacity has been greatly improved. The brokerage business is highly dependent, and the futures brokerage and stock pledge business has increased dramatically. The investment banking business is based in Henan and is gradually reaching the whole country. Asset management revenue +63% year-on-year. The target price is 9.46 yuan, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating. [Event] Zhongyuan Securities announced its report for the first three quarters of 2017: the first three quarters achieved operating income of 1,571 billion yuan, -1.21% year-on-year; net profit of 356 million yuan, net profit of 356 million yuan, or 35.29% year-on-year; corresponding to EPS of 0.09 yuan. Brokerage, underwriting, asset management, interest, and self-employment in the first three quarters of 2017 accounted for 28%/4%/3%/22%/20% respectively. The brokerage business focuses on customer development, and the futures brokerage and stock pledge business has grown dramatically. In the first three quarters of '17, the company achieved brokerage revenue of 436 million yuan, -23% year-on-year. The market share was 0.55%, down 4 bps from the previous year. The commission rate was 0.041%, down 13% year on year. As of the end of June, the company had a total of 1,699 million customers, an increase of 2.8% over the end of 2016. Actively shifting from traditional channel service providers to wealth managers, the “Central Plains Collection” and “Central Plains Manager” investment services have signed up to 255,129 customers. By the end of September, the company had a balance of 5.732 billion yuan, compared to -2.71% at the end of '16, and the share of the Liangrong market fell to 0.59% from 0.63% at the end of 2016; the scale of the stock pledge business increased significantly, and the uncompressed market value balance of stock pledges was 12.441 billion yuan, +35.3% from the end of '16. The investment banking business is based in Henan and is gradually reaching the whole country. In the first three quarters of 2017, the company's investment banking business revenue was 64 million yuan, -69% over the same period last year. Relying on the resource advantages of Henan, the company continues to improve its business layout for the whole country. In the first three quarters, one corporate bond raised 400 million yuan; two corporate bonds raised 2.18 billion yuan. There is 1 IPO reserve project, which is the main board project. Asset management revenue is +21% year-on-year, and targeted asset management plans are growing at a high rate. In the first three quarters of 2017, the company's asset management business revenue was 52 million yuan, +21% over the same period last year. The company's asset management business product line is getting richer. As of the end of June, the total asset management scale was 162 billion yuan, with 43 products; of these, 17 pooled asset management plans, with a scale of 4.659 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6%; and 24 targeted asset management plans, with a scale of 10.596 billion yuan, an increase of 68% over the previous year. The private equity fund management business strictly controls risks, deepens cooperation with local governments, accelerates the operation of existing science and innovation funds, and supports the development of the real economy. Self-operated, active and steady management. In the first three quarters of 2017, the company's self-operated business revenue was 315 million yuan, -13% over the same period last year. The company's self-operated business adheres to value investment. In the first half of 2017, it actively responded to fluctuations in the stock market, equity investment sought market opportunities, and adjusted the scale and structure of bond investment in a timely manner. [Investment advice] The 2017 EPS is expected to be 0.12 yuan, and BVPS is 2.96 yuan. Using the comparable company valuation method, the company's sub-IPO brokers were given an average valuation of 3.2x P/B, resulting in a target price of 9.46 yuan, corresponding to 2017 EP/E 77.5x and 2017 EP/B 3.2x, maintaining the “increased holdings” rating. Risk warning: The downturn in the market has led to a decline in both performance and valuation.

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