After the transformation of "energy + logistics", the leader of coal power transportation was born: after the actual controller of the company injected electric power and supporting coal assets into the listed company in 2016, the company's main business has expanded from simple logistics business to a leading coal transportation company integrating coal, electric power, port operation, railway transportation and logistics trade.
The integration of coal and power and the stabilization of coal price fluctuation costs: 75% of the coal produced by Dingji Coal Mine is supplied directly to the power plants on the listed platform. this coal-power joint venture business model makes the company has a comparative advantage in procurement, transportation, storage and other fixed cost expenditure and efficiency, thermal power fuel supply reliability is high, power plant inventory pressure is low, thus improving the operation efficiency of the power plant and unit profitability.
Stable logistics performance, to create a regional leader: the company has 272.5 km of railway lines, transport capacity of 7000 million tons / year, of which the external transfer volume can reach 40 million tons, and the turnover between power plants within the group can reach 30 million tons. The volume and price of railway transport business remained stable and continued to contribute to profits. The port operation will usher in a new increment: the Wuhu automobile river-sea intermodal transport hub project, the completion of Huainan Port and Hefei Port project will further establish the company's leading position in port operations and enhance the company's core competitiveness.
New opportunities for national reform, asset injection is expected: in the context of the accelerated reform of state-owned enterprises in Anhui Province, SASAC requires Huainan Mining Group to be listed as a whole, as its only listing platform, the company is expected to benefit. Because logistics assets have been injected into listed companies, and most of the group's power assets are shareholding power plants, so it is difficult to inject them, so we judge that coal assets are most likely to be injected. It is estimated that the group still has about 50.2 million tons of production capacity with the possibility of injection.
Assuming that the injection of coal assets into the listing platform will, on the one hand, promote the integration of coal and power more comprehensively, on the other hand, under the background of the overall rebound of the prosperity of the coal industry, the coal sales business will greatly improve the profitability of listed companies. and to a certain extent promote the development of logistics business.
Investment advice: coverage for the first time, with an investment rating of-A, with a 6-month target price of 5.00, corresponding to a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 40 times. We estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2017 to 2019 is 489 million yuan, 572 million yuan and 672 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.13,0.15 and 0.17 yuan respectively.
Risk tips: macro-economic decline, a sharp decline in thermal power demand, Anhui national reform progress is slow.
