Comments on Chitianhua (600227) Quarterly report: chemical business is a drag on the company's growth. Western medicine business has a good momentum of growth.

浙商證券 · Nov 1, 2017 00:00 · Researches

报告导读

公司发布2017 年三季度报告，报告期内公司实现营业收入10.84 亿元，同比下降56.25%；归属上市公司的净利润为-0.24 亿元，同比增长77.31%，扣非后归属上市公司的净利润为-0.79 亿元，同比增长63.29%。

投资要点

化工业务成本继续提升，拖累公司营收及利润增长公司全资子公司桐梓化工由于煤炭供应紧张，从2016 年12 月1 日起暂停生产，至2017 年3 月12 日才恢复生产，导致2017 年主导产品尿素和甲醇的产销量均同比减少。今年受环保检查，原油价格波动等因素影响，甲醇及尿素价格均有所增长，其中甲醇前三季度平均售价为2074.49 元/吨，同比上涨48.25%，尿素前三季度平均售价1496.72 元/吨，同比上涨15.53%。但报告期内受煤炭行业去产能改革的影响，公司煤炭前三季度平均采购价格同比上涨44.53%，导致成本涨幅抵消了销售价格的涨幅。

西药业务增长良好，中药业务受原材料价格上涨影响毛利率大幅下降公司西药业务增长较好，报告期内实现营业收入2.72 亿元，同比增长23.26%，毛利率为90.07%，同比增长3.73%。对公司业绩影响逐步增大。中药业务受报告期内原材料价格上涨影响，毛利率同比下降20.37%。原公司控股子公司康心药业股权转让后不再纳入合并报表范围，医药流通业务已经完全剥离。

增资桐梓化工，缓解资金压力

公司全资子公司桐梓化工由于近年主导产品尿素和甲醇的市场价格低迷，加上近一年原材料价格持续上涨，导致桐梓化工连续亏损，流动资金紧张。公司决定将桐梓化工所欠公司12 亿元转作投资，有助于优化其财务结构，提升其融资能力，缓解面临的经营资金压力，保证公司化工业务正常开展。未来随着行业景气度回升，公司化工业务有望逐步企稳。

盈利预测及估值

我们认为公司原有化工业务受行业景气度回升影响未来将逐步企稳，收购圣济堂开始进军医药行业，现有核心品种所处的糖尿病用药市场市场空间巨大，公司业绩将逐步改善。大股东与美国阿莱恩斯医疗服务公司合资建立肿瘤医院，未来培育成熟后有望纳入上市公司，助力公司转型医疗行业。我们预计2017-2019 年营业收入分别为13.65 亿、18.61 亿、23.53 亿，归母净利润分别为0.31 亿、0.84 亿、1.29 亿，每股收益0.02 元、0.05 元、0.07 元，给予“增持”评级。

风险提示

1. 尿素行业政策风险。

2. 尿素价格下降风险。

3. 储备品种研发失败风险。

4. 医保招标政策变化及降价风险。

Report guide

According to the company's third-quarter report in 2017, during the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 1.084 billion yuan, down 56.25% from the same period last year; the net profit attributed to listed companies was-24 million yuan, up 77.31% from the same period last year, and the net profit attributed to listed companies after deducting non-listed companies was-79 million yuan, up 63.29% from the same period last year.

Main points of investment

Due to tight coal supply, Tongzi Chemical, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, suspended production from December 1, 2016 and did not resume production until March 12, 2017, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in production and sales of urea and methanol, the leading products in 2017. Affected by environmental protection inspection, crude oil price fluctuations and other factors this year, the prices of methanol and urea have increased, of which the average selling price of methanol in the first three quarters was 2074.49 yuan / ton, up 48.25 percent over the same period last year, and the average selling price of urea in the first three quarters was 1496.72 yuan / ton, up 15.53 percent from the same period last year. However, due to the impact of capacity reduction reform in the coal industry during the reporting period, the company's average purchase price of coal rose 44.53% in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year, resulting in an increase in costs to offset the increase in sales prices.

Western medicine business grew well, and the gross profit margin of the traditional Chinese medicine business decreased sharply due to the rise in raw material prices. during the reporting period, the company achieved business income of 272 million yuan, an increase of 23.26% over the same period last year, and a gross profit margin of 90.07%, an increase of 3.73% over the same period last year. The impact on the company's performance is gradually increasing. The traditional Chinese medicine business was affected by the rise in raw material prices during the reporting period, and the gross profit margin decreased by 20.37% compared with the same period last year. Kangxin Pharmaceutical, the holding subsidiary of the original company, will no longer be included in the scope of the consolidated statement after the transfer of shares, and the pharmaceutical circulation business has been completely spun off.

Increase investment in Tongzi Chemical Industry to ease financial pressure

Tongzi Chemical, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, has suffered continuous losses and tight liquidity due to the low market prices of urea and methanol, which are the leading products of the company, and the rising prices of raw materials in the past year. The company decided to convert 1.2 billion yuan owed by Tongzi Chemical Company into investment, which will help to optimize its financial structure, enhance its financing capacity, alleviate the pressure of operating funds, and ensure the normal development of the company's chemical business. In the future, with the recovery of the industry boom, the company's chemical business is expected to gradually stabilize.

Profit forecast and valuation

We believe that the company's original chemical business affected by the recovery of the industry will gradually stabilize in the future, the acquisition of Sheng Jitang began to enter the pharmaceutical industry, the existing core varieties of diabetes drugs market space is huge, the company's performance will gradually improve. Major shareholders and the United States Aliens Medical Services Company to establish a joint venture tumor hospital, the future cultivation is expected to be included in the listed company, to help the company transform the medical industry. We expect the operating income from 2017 to 2019 to be 1.365 billion, 1.861 billion and 2.353 billion respectively, the return net profit to be 31 million, 84 million and 129 million respectively, and the earnings per share to be 0.02,0.05,0.07 yuan.

Risk hint

1. Policy risk of urea industry.

two。 Risk of decline in urea price.

3. Reserve the risk of failure in variety research and development.

4. The change of medical insurance bidding policy and the risk of price reduction.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

赤天化(600227)三季报点评：化工业务拖累公司成长 西药业务增长势头良好

Comments on Chitianhua (600227) Quarterly report: chemical business is a drag on the company's growth. Western medicine business has a good momentum of growth.

Risk Disclaimer

Statement

赤天化(600227)三季报点评：化工业务拖累公司成长西药业务增长势头良好