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大连圣亚(600593)季报点评:旅游旺季业绩表现突出 毛利率提升彰显公司整体溢价能力

國金證券 ·  Nov 1, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Performance Overview The first three quarters of 2017 achieved operating income of 305 million yuan/ +13.69%, net profit of 90 million yuan/ +29.31%, net profit of 90 million yuan/ +29.31%, net profit after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was 90 million yuan/ +24.94%. Among them, the third quarter achieved operating income of 173 million yuan/ +12.58%, and net profit of 0.83 million yuan/ +24.95%. Business analysis The revenue growth performance of the Dalian region was impressive, and the performance driving effect during the peak tourist season was remarkable: the revenue of the Dalian region in the third quarter was 138 million yuan, up 18.27% year on year, the highest growth rate in the third quarter in recent years. Net profit of 773.18,500 yuan was realized, an increase of 40.43% over the previous year. The company's marketing plan innovation and product innovation have played a positive role in the flow of visitors to the scenic area. The operating income of the Dalian region in the first three quarters was 231 million yuan/ +20.99%, and the net profit for the first three quarters was 9.0194 million yuan/ +38.01%. As the peak tourist season for the Dalian region, the third quarter contributed significantly to the annual performance growth. Asset-light export business and internal management improvements helped increase the company's gross margin, but business performance outside of Dalian continued to be under pressure: the company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 67.76% /+5.27pct, of which the gross margins for Q1/Q2/Q3 were 31.98% /+4.77pct, 59.58% /+3.59pct, and 81.17% /+6.07pct, respectively. When operating income increased 14%, operating costs decreased by 2.3%. On the one hand, the increase in gross margin was due to the high gross margin of the asset-light business, which led to an increase in the company's overall gross margin. In May 2017, the Huai'an Longgong White Whale Water World Phase I Polar Aquarium was put into trial operation. The Huai'an Project and the Wuhu Project (which opened in September 2016) provided the company with additional asset-light export service revenue. On the other hand, we believe that the sharp increase in the company's gross margin under the influence of the increase in business reform has benefited from the company's cost control and internal management improvements. After excluding the performance of the parent company in Dalian from the consolidated report, regions other than Dalian had revenue of 34.1629 million yuan/ -5.78% for the third quarter; if asset-light export revenue is further excluded, the company's Harbin project performance is still not optimistic due to intense external competition. After the non-public offering failed, the company passed a 1 billion yuan guarantee plan to obtain bank loans, and set up an investment fund to jointly fill the gap in its own capital. The pressure on future financial expenses will continue to increase: the company's new project layout other than Dalian and Harbin bases continues. Among them, the investment amount of the first phase of the Yingkou project is 780 million yuan, the investment amount of the Hangzhou Wildlife Park phase II Longhui Ocean Kingdom is 1 billion yuan, and the investment amount of the Xiamen project is 382 million yuan. The investment amount for the Qiandao Lake project is 850 million yuan, and the investment amount for the Sanya project is 295 million yuan. The investment amount for the project is 3.3 billion yuan. If the capital pressure of 3.3 billion yuan is solved through bank loans or fund bonds, the financial cost pressure is relatively high. Financial expenses for the first three quarters were 9.638 million yuan, an increase of 37.5% over the previous year, and the financial expense ratio was 3.15% /+0.55pct. At the same time, the payback period for the company's asset-heavy projects is long. According to the analysis of the feasibility report, the payback period of the project investment is over 7 years, and the project investment is heavy and there are uncertain risks. Profit adjustments and investment recommendations estimate that the net profit for 2017-E-2019E will be 0.46/0.47/051 million yuan, a growth rate of 37%/1.3%/9.3%. EPS is 0.377/0.382/0.418 yuan, and PE corresponding to the current stock price is 63/62/57 times, respectively, maintaining an increase in holdings rating. Risks indicate that the company's projects under construction are delayed in opening time, and the proposed cooperative projects are not progressing smoothly, and the funding gap is large

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