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渤海轮渡(603167)季报点评:旺季效应凸显 三季度盈利表现亮眼

廣發證券 ·  Oct 30, 2017 00:00  · Researches

In the first three quarters of 2017, the company achieved operating income of 1,144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%, net profit attributable to listed companies of 258 million yuan, an increase of 58.9% year-on-year, and net profit after deduction of 267 million yuan, a sharp increase of 99.8% over the previous year. The revenue of the passenger roll business increased markedly during the peak season. The profit performance in the single quarter was outstanding, and the company's revenue and profit performance in the third quarter was very impressive. It achieved profit of 441 million yuan in a single quarter, up 26.3% year on year and 21.4% month on month. Net profit of 118 million yuan was achieved after deduction in a single quarter, a significant increase from 65 million yuan and 84 million yuan in the first and second quarter. Affected by macroeconomic improvements and highway overhaul, demand in the Bohai Bay passenger market increased steadily. Coupled with the fact that the third quarter itself was a peak season for the passenger roller industry, it led to rapid growth in the company's revenue in a single quarter. In terms of cost, due to the company's liner operation, the increase in traffic volume was mainly translated into an increase in the carrying rate. The increase in operating costs was not obvious. Operating costs in the third quarter increased by only 6.1% compared to the second quarter. RMB appreciation significantly reduced financial expenses The company's total financial expenses for the first three quarters were -14.08 million yuan, a significant decrease from 29.7 million yuan in the same period last year, mainly reflected in exchange gains brought about by RMB appreciation. At this stage, the 1% appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar corresponds to the company's exchange earnings of about 6 million yuan. Selected for the mixed reform pilot project in Liaoning Province, an employee shareholding company announced in July that it was selected as the first batch of pilot employee shareholding projects for state-owned mixed ownership enterprises in Liaoning Province. The announcement proposed that the selected enterprises should complete the shareholding plan by the end of 2017. We believe that employee shareholding will significantly increase employee and management motivation and have a positive impact on the company's operations. Profit forecast and investment advice: Due to earnings growth exceeding expectations in the third quarter, we raised the company's EPS forecast for 17-19 to 0.80, 0.87, and 0.96 yuan/share, corresponding to the current share price PE of 14.7, 13.5, and 12.3 times, respectively. Against the backdrop of the Northeast economy bottoming out and recovering, we believe that the company's main business is expected to continue to grow and maintain a “buy” rating. Risk warning: macroeconomic growth is slowing; highway overcontrol policies are loosened

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