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苏宁环球(000718)三季报点评:地产业务稳定 医美专注核心竞争力

興業證券 ·  Oct 30, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Key investment events: The announcement announced 3Q17 revenue of 2,884 billion dollars, a year-on-year decline of 29.9%, net profit of 538 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 33.2%, a year-on-year decline of 509 million in net profit, a year-on-year decline of 36.83%, and an EPS of 0.177. Profits declined in the first three quarters, but growth can still be expected throughout the year. We expect profits to continue to grow this year, mainly because the company's real estate profits are mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter (according to the financial report for the past three years, net profit for the second half of the year accounted for about 65-94% of the year). This year's real estate performance mainly reflects the rapid increase in real estate prices in Nanjing in 2016. We still maintain our expectations of a 25% increase in net profit this year. Land reserves are still 2.79 million square meters, and about 70% are concentrated in the Nanjing region. Adequate monetization capacity provides strong support for the company's transformation path. The medical and aesthetic mergers and acquisitions have been steadfastly continued, and detailed services have been shown in the field. Since this year, the company has slowed down the progress of mergers and acquisitions of medical and aesthetic institutions, and strengthened detailed service processes such as introduction services, training, and consultation with ID Health and the Taiwan Medical Association. Subsequent attention to synergies has shown results in reducing customer acquisition costs, and is expected to gradually widen the gap with peers. However, even so, we lowered the 2018-19 net profit level by 7.2%/7.4%, mainly due to assumptions such as the expected slowdown in real estate business growth and delays in the growth period of the medical and aesthetic business due to focus on service processes. The value is gradually reflected, so it is recommended to pay attention. The compound growth rate is estimated to reach 18.1% in 2017-19. EPS is 0.44/0.51/0.62, and PE is 12.4x/10.7x/8.9x, respectively. Since this year, stock prices have been backtested due to a weak real estate sector and a long medical and aesthetic cultivation period. Currently, the downgrade risk is low, maintaining the view that the company has the best ability to become an integrator in the medical and aesthetic sector, and maintaining the suggestion to increase holdings. Risk warning: The expansion of medical and aesthetic projects is not as good as expected, and the real estate sector has declined sharply

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