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北辰实业(601588)三季报点评:公司业绩高增长 设立现代国企研究院

海通證券 ·  Oct 30, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Investment highlights: The company released its 2017 three-quarter report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 10.10 billion yuan, an increase of 39.1% over the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 835 million yuan, an increase of 96.8% over the previous year; and realized basic earnings per share of 0.25 yuan. In the first three quarters of 2017, the company's revenue increased by 39.1%, driven by property carry-over and property revenue growth; net profit increased to 96.8% due to lower cost levels during the same period. From January to September 2017, the company achieved a total construction area of 1,524,300 square meters of land reserves (planned construction area of 1.1294 million square meters), a year-on-year decrease of 24.98%; the company achieved a new construction area of 1,818,200 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.75%, a year-on-year decrease of 485,400 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 44.98%, and a resumption area of 5.2509 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 24.78%; in terms of project sales, the company achieved a contract area of 824,500 square meters, with a contract amount of 14.738 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.738 billion yuan, respectively. 37.07% and 21.65%, with a settlement area of 579,600 square meters and a settlement amount of 7.986 billion yuan, up 22.98% and 53.31%, respectively, from the previous year. From January to September 2017, in terms of owned properties, the conference center business format had a total construction area of 326,400 square meters, achieving a total operating income of 572.43 million yuan; the office building industry, the total construction area of the project was 365 million square meters, achieving total operating income of 516.65 million yuan; the hotel industry, the total construction area of the project was 291,600 square meters, achieving total operating income of 586.74 million yuan; the apartment industry, total construction area of the project 802 million square meters, achieving total operating income of 145.73 million yuan. Since 2017, the company has obtained a total of 519,000 square meters of land reserve equity. In September 2017, the company plans to invest 10 million yuan to participate in the establishment of the Beijing Shuimu Modern State-owned Enterprise Research Institute. In 2017, the company plans to develop properties with an estimated new construction area of 2.57 million square meters, a resumed construction area of 6.02 million square meters, and a completed area of 1.37 million square meters. In 2017, the company strives to achieve sales of 1.25 million square meters and signed contracts (including parking spaces) of 20 billion yuan. Investment advice. Expand upstream into the convention and exhibition industry, strengthen development momentum, and maintain a “buy” rating. The company's projects focus on Beijing and Changsha, and are involved in development, commercial and investment properties. The revaluation of the company's projects in Beijing benefited from the “Beijing Cultural and Creative Plan”, with an accumulated value of about 69.7 billion yuan (net sales profit of 13.9 billion yuan). The company is a leader in the exhibition business in the country and is transforming into an upstream high-profit business. We expect the company's 2017-2018 EPS to be 0.32 yuan and 0.45 yuan respectively, and the corresponding RNAV is 10.38 yuan. The company's stock price/RNAV discount rate is generally the lowest among listed commercial real estate companies. Furthermore, Beijing's bid to host the Winter Olympics has now been successful. Considering the company's important performance in the Asian Games and Olympics, we expect that Beichen Industrial will probably continue to participate in related work. Considering that on the basis of business development, the company focuses on developing innovative businesses such as “Exhibition+Internet,” the health care industry, and cultural and creative industries, etc., the company was given a 10% discount on RNAV, or 9.34 yuan, as the company's target price for the next 6 months to maintain the “buy” rating. Risk warning: The industry faces two major risks: interest rate hikes and policy regulation.

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