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花王股份(603007)三季报点评:业绩符合预期 水生态布局值得期待

安信證券 ·  Oct 30, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Matters: The company released a three-quarter report. From January to September, it achieved cumulative operating income of 615 million yuan, an increase of 49% over the previous year; in the same period, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 0.8 billion yuan, an increase of 29.21% over the previous year; and achieved an EPS of 0.25 yuan, a decrease of 4% over the previous year. The company's overall performance was in line with expectations. Q2\ Q3 performance declined year on year, and the low business profit margin was the main reason: the company achieved operating income and net profit of 615 million yuan/0.8 million yuan respectively in 2017-9, with a year-on-year growth rate of 49%/29.21% respectively; on a quarterly basis, the company achieved revenue of 1.28/3.3/157 million yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year growth rate of 132%/28.9%/54% respectively; net profit for the same period was 2869/4416/701 million yuan, year-on-year growth rate 486.6%/-4.74%/-32.21%. The company's Q2\ Q3 recorded 28.9% and 54% growth in revenue, respectively, and net profit growth rates were -4.74% and -32.21% respectively. Mainly, the company's projects during the reporting period were mainly municipal engineering projects with low gross margin. The company's 2017 Q1/Q2/Q3 gross margin levels were 34.33%/21.92%/17.75%, respectively. The decline in project profit margins caused the company's performance growth rate to lag and business scale growth in the first three quarters. Market expansion accelerated in the third quarter to provide support for subsequent growth: Since the company's new orders in the first three quarters were mainly ecotourism and municipal gardens, a cumulative total of 2.24 billion yuan of new orders were signed during the reporting period, an increase of 474.83% over the previous year. Among them, ecological landscape and municipal garden projects were 1,223 billion yuan and 952 million yuan respectively, accounting for 54.6% and 42.5%. In Q3, 952 million yuan of new orders were signed during the quarter, with a year-on-year growth rate of 698.77%. The company's market expansion process accelerated markedly. At the same time, the company signed a strategic framework agreement of 2.9 billion yuan from January to September 2017, and signed a total of 5.14 billion yuan in new orders, 10 times the revenue in 2016. The share of ecotourism projects (mainly PPP and EPC projects) in the company's new orders has increased, and the profit margin is higher than the company's real estate landscape, road greening, and municipal projects. With the implementation of these projects, the company's profit margin level is expected to improve. Garden+layout aquatic ecological management, the company's growth is expected to reach a new level: on June 29, 2017, the company launched a 252 million yuan cash purchase bill to acquire 60% of “Zhengzhou Water” shares. The matter was completed on October 17. The company's main goal is to go deep into the aquatic ecological management market and integrate the ecological industry chain; Zhengzhou Water is mainly engaged in water resources and hydropower engineering construction, which is highly relevant to the company's main business, ecological and environmental protection engineering construction. It is conducive to the company's strategic development plan for the extension of the industrial chain. The integration of Zhengzhou Water into the listed company is beneficial to accelerate the company's business expansion. but Cultivate new profit growth points; at the same time, the company launched 14.4 million yuan to acquire 80% of “Zhongwei International” shares on September 30, with the aim of strengthening engineering design capabilities and adding capacity to its entire industry chain layout. Investment suggestions: The company's new contract volume has grown rapidly since 2017, while extending mergers and acquisitions to establish aquatic ecological management, and garden+layout will accelerate the company's growth. The company's revenue growth rates from 2017 to 2019 are expected to be 92.9%, 56.2%, and 30.0% respectively, and net profit growth rates of 109.4%, 53.1%, and 32.4% respectively, with outstanding growth; maintaining an investment rating of 20.25 yuan for 6 months, equivalent to a dynamic price-earnings ratio of 29 times in 2018. Risk warning: Risks such as the slowdown in PPP order progress, the implementation of company projects falling short of expectations, rising capital costs, and falling short of expectations in the extension layout.

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