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渤海轮渡(603167)三季报点评:客运旺季提振业绩 上调盈利预测

東興證券 ·  Oct 30, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Event: Bohai Ferry released its 2017 three-quarter report. The first three quarters achieved operating income of 1,144 billion yuan, an increase of 29% over the previous year; realized operating costs of 720 million yuan, an increase of 17.6%; realized total profit of 497 million yuan, an increase of 60% over the previous year; and realized net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 358 million yuan and EPS of 0.74, an increase of 58.9% over the previous year. Non-net profit attributable to listed companies was 267 million yuan, an increase of 99.8% over the previous year. Opinion: The peak summer passenger season in the third quarter boosted off-season profits. Affected by the increase in passenger traffic during the peak season combined with the increase in traffic volume brought about by road overruns, the company's profit for the third quarter was 164 million yuan, up 137% year on year and 37.2% over the second quarter. The increase in traffic volume brought about by road overruns was the main reason for the year-on-year increase in profit in the third quarter. The increase in passenger traffic during the peak season was mainly reflected in the increase in performance compared to the second quarter. The 19th National Congress restricted land transportation in the Beijing region, and land transportation was diverted to ferries. The fourth quarter results are expected to improve sharply. Affected by restrictions on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei road section during the 19th National Congress, some vehicles originally planned to bypass the Bohai Rim were forced to move away from the Yadai Ferry. The company's vehicle traffic is expected to increase dramatically in October. The renminbi appreciated, and financial expenses continued to fall in the third quarter. The company's financial expenses for the first three quarters were negative 14 million, compared to 29.71 million for the same period last year. According to information disclosed by the company, in the first half of the year, if the RMB appreciates or depreciates 1% against the US dollar, the company's net profit from January to June 2017 will increase or decrease by 6.34 million yuan. Conclusion: Profit forecasts and suggestions: The company's three-quarter report performance is basically in line with expectations in our in-depth report “Highway Supervision, Major Increase in Main Business, Extend Multimodal Transport to Increase Growth Space” published in May, and is higher than Wande's expectations. Considering that road transport restrictions in the Hebei region during the 19th National Congress boosted traffic in Bohai Bay, the fourth quarter results are expected to exceed our previous expectations. We raised our profit forecast and raised our profit forecast for the full year of 2017 by 9.7% from 381 million to 418 million. The company's net profit for 17-19 is estimated to be 418 million, 472 million, and 524 million, respectively, EPS of 0.87, 0.98, and 1.09, corresponding P/E of 13X, 12X, and 11X, corresponding to a dividend ratio of 4.1% in 2017, maintaining a “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: economic growth rate is lower than expected, ship safety incidents

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