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思美传媒(002712)三季报点评:整合营销能力提升 一站式服务扬帆起航

西南證券 ·  Oct 30, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Key Investment Events: Company Announcement Three Quarterly Report: 1) 2017Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 3.02 billion yuan, up 13.1% year on year; realized net profit of 190 million yuan, up 88.4% year on year; realized deducted non-net profit of 180 million yuan, up 95.9% year on year. 2) 2017Q3 achieved revenue of 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.8%; realized net profit to mother of 54.53 million yuan, an increase of 30.9% over the previous year. 3) Annual performance guidance: The net profit range for 2017 was 198 million to 269 million, an increase of 40% to 90% over the previous year. The three-quarter results are in the middle of the performance forecast ($161-212 million), which is basically in line with expectations. There was a large range of changes in annual performance. The performance of several companies did not have much of a problem with completing gambling, and traditional businesses declined to a certain extent. The increase in performance was mainly due to digital marketing and content marketing. 2017Q1 completed the transfer of the remaining 20% shares in Zhihai Yangtao (transfer in early March), Zhangwei Technology, Guanda Film and Television, and Keyi Communications (transfer in mid-late February). Furthermore, the company's gross margin and net margin increased under the impetus of the target. The one-stop integrated marketing service system of “TV advertising marketing+digital marketing+content marketing” set sail. The company has successively acquired Edconsai (search engine marketing), Guanda Film and Television (content production), Zhangwei Technology (online literature, paid reading), Keyi Communications (variety promotion), and Zhihai Yangtao (automotive digital integrated marketing). Currently, it has formed a one-stop integrated marketing service system of “TV advertising marketing+digital marketing+content marketing”, and future performance and synergy effects are worth looking forward to. In the medium to long term, Keyi Communications can form a good collaboration with the original TV advertising business; Guanda has outstanding film and television production capabilities. Recently, “Because I Met You” has the highest ratings and online broadcasts. Once the series is marketed, it will usher in a profit inflection point; the paid reading platform of Zhangwei Technology is developing steadily, and it is possible to increase performance through copyright monetization in the future. One of the core risks of the marketing industry in 2018 was the performance of mergers and acquisitions targets versus the performance after the gambling period. However, the targets of the company's acquisitions were still in the gambling period in 2018, which may be more secure than other companies' performance. The majority shareholders terminated the plan to reduce their holdings, and one of the factors suppressing stock prices was lifted. On July 20, 2017, the company received a notice from the controlling shareholder and actual controller, Mr. Zhu Mingqiu, promising to terminate the holdings reduction plan and not reduce its direct holdings of the company's shares for the next 12 months. The termination of the holdings reduction plan may lift some of the factors that suppress the company's stock price. Profit forecasting and investment advice. The completion of the acquisition of 4 subsidiaries in the first half of 2017 brought considerable synergy effects. The company's business in the content sector grew rapidly, and the company continues to be optimistic. According to the performance guidelines, the profit forecast is estimated to be 0.77/1.00/1.29 yuan for 2017-2019, respectively, and downgraded to an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: The performance of the subject matter of the acquisition is achieved or does not meet the promises; risk of merger and acquisition integration.

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