Main points of investment
The company released the third-quarter report of 2017: the company's operating income in the first three quarters of 2017 was 689 million yuan, down 6.98% from the same period last year; the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies was 65.0597 million yuan, down 27.21% from the same period last year, corresponding to EPS0.1760 yuan.
The company's performance was under short-term pressure, and gross profit margin fell further. The company's Q1, Q2 and Q3 achieved operating income of 1.76,2.87 and 226 million yuan respectively, an increase of 7.41% and-0.03% respectively compared with the same period last year. The gross profit margins of Q1, Q2 and Q3 companies are 39.26%, 27.27% and 26.55% respectively, and the gross profit margin has declined further. We judge that it is mainly caused by the rising price of raw materials, the increase of labor costs and the low gross profit margin of energy projects.
There are many projects in hand to support the company's future performance. The company has a comprehensive layout of the clean energy industry chain and has many projects in hand: the EPC project of "Diqing Natural Gas Branch Pipeline Project" (winning bid amount of 350 million yuan) is in preparation before construction; in cooperation with Chengdu bus and Pujiang special gas strategy, a HCNG demonstration hydrogenation station will be built; the shale gas comprehensive utilization project in Chongqing is expected to sign an investment agreement in November. The application and promotion project of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is also in progress step by step. With the further landing of cooperative projects and orders, it is expected to support the company's future performance.
Natural gas heavy truck with the "Golden Nine Silver 10" production has greatly increased, gas station business is expected to pick up. In September 2017, the national output of natural gas heavy trucks reached 11682, an increase of 712.94 percent over the same period last year, breaking the record for sales for many months in a row. at the same time, the cumulative production of natural gas heavy trucks from January to September was 67000, an increase of 57.1 percent over the same period last year. At the same time, the natural gas bus market produced a total of about 8129 vehicles from January to September, a slight increase of about 19.5% over the same period last year. With the increase in the production of natural gas heavy trucks and passenger cars, the company's gas station business is expected to pick up.
As a result of the "coal to gas" policy, natural gas is in short supply, and the energy engineering business welcomes the opportunity for development. The landing of policies such as "coal to gas" has led to a substantial increase in natural gas consumption, which rose 30.4 per cent in August from a year earlier, higher than the same period last year. Recently, Petrochina also posted that the contradiction between natural gas supply and demand has further intensified, and in order to alleviate the pressure on natural gas supply, more related natural gas projects are bound to be carried out, bringing development opportunities for the company's energy engineering business.
Profit forecast and rating: through continuous independent R & D and innovation and epitaxial mergers and acquisitions, the company has built up a complete clean energy solution provider. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2017 to 2019 will be 0.45 / 0.63x0.82 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE 36x/ 26x / 20x, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: downstream market demand is lower than expected; energy project revenue is confirmed to be lower than expected.