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富春环保(002479)季报点评:内生增长叠加外延并购 业绩增长符合预期

東北證券 ·  Oct 25, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Event: On October 22, the company released its 2017 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 2,476 billion yuan, an increase of 32.98% over the same period last year, net profit of 248 million yuan, an increase of 37.30% over the same period last year, and net profit of 242 million dollars after deducting non-net profit, an increase of 43.29% over the same period last year. At the same time, the company expects net profit for the full year of 2017 to be between 318 million and 392 million yuan, with a net profit increase of 30% to 60%. Revenue grew steadily, and profit declined in the third quarter. The company's profit increased by 37.3% in the first three quarters. The main reasons for the increase in profit were: 1) the Fuyang base implemented a new “coal and heat price linkage mechanism” and raised heating prices; 2) the gradual release of production capacity for new construction projects; and 3) the consolidation of economic stability in South Africa. Looking at a single quarter, profit for the third quarter fell 13.99%, mainly due to the impact of environmental inspection films on downstream companies' production and the increase in raw material prices. There will definitely be an increase of 900 million dollars, and there is strong internal vitality based on the main industry. The company's main business is waste power generation and cogeneration. Through expansion, development and accumulation in the early years, the company has formed a certain monopoly advantage. Currently, the daily garbage disposal capacity reaches 1,000 tons, and the scale of solid waste disposal is leading in the country. With the country's strong support for the circular economy and energy saving and emission reduction industries, the company has raised capital to invest in a comprehensive sludge incineration resource utilization project. Currently, 6,700 tons of sludge are processed daily, of which 2,800 tons of sludge are treated by the company headquarters and 3,900 tons of sludge per day in Qingyuan Ecological Daily. At the same time, the company's 2016 fixed growth project successfully passed the meeting. It plans to issue no more than 159 million shares and raise no more than 920 million yuan to acquire 30% of the shares of Xingang Thermal Power, the Xingang Thermal Power Development and Expansion Project, the flue gas treatment technology transformation project, the combustion system technology transformation project, the Liyang North Area Cogeneration Project, the addition of 550t/h heating +36 MW of power supply capacity and additional revenue of 497 million per year. The endogenous growth in performance is steady. Continue to extend mergers and acquisitions to enhance the company's performance. The company continues to complete mergers and acquisitions around the “cogeneration model”. In February 2017, the company acquired 92% of the shares of Southern Normal Energy and the remaining 30% of the shares in Changzhou Xingang in March, forming four major bases in Quzhou, Changzhou, Liyang and Nantong in addition to Fuyang. After the acquisition, the profitability of all subsidiaries increased significantly. Investment rating and valuation: The company's net profit for 2017-2019 is estimated to be 380 million yuan, 499 million yuan and 650 million yuan, EPS is 0.48 yuan, 0.63 yuan, and 0.82 yuan, and price-earnings ratios are 24 times, 19 times, and 14 times, respectively. Give it an “Overweight” rating. Risk warning: environmental policy risk, project progress risk

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