Event: The company released its three-quarter report. The first three quarters achieved revenue of 960 million yuan, an increase of 51% over the previous year; net profit of 110 million yuan was realized, an increase of 78% over the previous year. Performance slightly exceeded market expectations. The company's revenue growth rate showed a quarterly acceleration trend. The company's performance slightly exceeded market expectations, and the net profit growth rate was above the median value of the performance forecast range for the first three quarters (50 to 90%). The company's revenue growth rate showed a quarterly acceleration trend. Q1/Q2/Q3 single-quarter revenue increased 35%/48%/67% year on year, respectively. Excluding merger factors and the impact of the contraction of the aftermarket business, front-loading revenue is expected to maintain high growth in the third quarter. Considering that the fourth quarter is the time for the centralized launch of new models, it is worth looking forward to another level of revenue growth driven by the front-loading business. Looking ahead to 2018, revenue is expected to maintain a continuous and rapid growth trend, benefiting from Toyota's large overseas orders and the launch of new products such as smart cockpits. Profitability has continued to improve. The company is expected to achieve a net profit margin of 11.4% in the first three quarters of the 2017 exam preparation net profit of about 200 million yuan, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the previous year. In our judgment, the continued increase in profitability is mainly due to pre-installation and mergers of business upgrades. The company disclosed net profit in the full-year performance range of 150 to 180 million yuan. Considering the positive order feedback for the fourth quarter, we judge that the median net profit for the whole year was about 170 million yuan above the forecast range. Considering that Inka Technology and Sanqi Communications did not match the first quarter and Hangsheng Electronics in the first three quarters, we expect the net profit for exam preparation in 2017 to be about 200 million yuan (the total net profit for 2017 of the three acquisitions of Inka Technology, Sanqi Communications, and Hangsheng Electronics is estimated to be close to 90 million yuan). Leaders in the smart cockpit circuit are optimistic that the strategy to enter GAC Toyota Systems in 2018 is extending from two dimensions, horizontally and vertically, and is expected to open up room for growth. The horizontal product line extends at the level. The company is extending from central control navigation to LCD meters (essential for new energy vehicles). It is one of the few T1 manufacturers in China with mass production capacity. According to the announcement, the smart cockpit model (dual 12.3 central control plus LCD instrument) will be shipped at the end of October, and we expect the relevant models to be launched in mid-November. At the level of vertical customer upgrading, the company is independently entering middle and high-end joint ventures, mainly Zotye. Relying on Fujitsu Tien, a subsidiary of Toyota, we are optimistic that the company will enter GAC Toyota in 2018 and the Toyota global system in 2019 to achieve domestic replacement. The investment proposal benefits from the two major industrial trends of intelligent cockpits and domestic replacement. It is a probable event that the company achieves high endogenous growth. It is estimated that the net profit for exam preparation in 2017 is 200 million yuan, and the net profit for 2018 is 300 million yuan. The current price corresponds to 2017, and the price-earnings ratio for 2018 is about 39X and 26X. Maintaining the buying rating, the target price is 26 yuan, corresponding to 2018 PE 36X. Risk warning: R&D expenses and employee salaries continue to rise, and business progress falls short of expectations
索菱股份(002766)季报点评:业绩略超市场预期 智能驾驶舱赛道的领军者
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