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厚普股份(300471):业绩已然触底 行业增长在望

華金證券 ·  Oct 27, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Investment points The company's performance in the first three quarters declined inertially: From January to September 2017, the company's main business revenue was 688 million yuan, down 6.98% from the previous year, operating profit was 58 million yuan, down 12.64%, and net profit after deducting 53.79 million yuan, a decrease of 23.45%. The main reason for the decline in performance was the decline in revenue and gross margin. The increase in the company's performance lags behind the growth in business volume: the company's net other receivables for the third quarter increased by 49 million yuan at the end of the year, an increase of 113%, mainly due to an increase in construction security deposits. This shows that the company's construction in progress business actually increased accordingly. The company's inventory balance at the end of the third quarter increased by 159 million yuan from the beginning of the year, an increase of 107%, mainly due to the purchase of inventory products in the current period. This should mainly be the main engine and supporting parts required for the project. From this, it is speculated that the company's business volume will be reflected in an increase in performance in the coming year. Net operating cash flow improved year-on-year: The net cash flow from the company's operating activities in the first three quarters of this year was -164.64 million yuan, from -19.583 million yuan in the same period last year to -19.583 million yuan, an increase of 36.3 million yuan over the previous year, an increase of 125%, which means that the recovery of sales payments during the period was relatively good. Expect the driving effect of LNG heavy trucks on gas stations: According to data from the Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Network, from January to September 2017, China's heavy truck market sold a total of 870,000 vehicles of various models, an increase of 75.85% over the previous year. Among them, the cumulative production of LNG heavy trucks was 66,994 units, an increase of 571% over the previous year, far exceeding the most prosperous sales volume of 50105 units in the full year of 2014. In particular, in September of this year, the production of heavy natural gas trucks was 11,682 units, up 713% year on year, and the year-on-year growth rate reached a record high. This is also the first time in history that sales in a single month have exceeded 10,000 units. We expect that the strong increase in sales of heavy natural gas trucks will gradually spread to the gas station business, and there is room for improvement in the company's performance. Investment advice: We adjusted the company's earnings per share forecast for 2017-2019 from the previous 0.49, 0.68, and 0.95 yuan to 0.41, 0.58, and 0.88 yuan, respectively. We judge that the company's performance has bottomed out, maintaining the “buy-A” investment rating and the six-month target price of 23.8 yuan. Risk warning: Uncertainties such as the economic recovery of the natural gas industry falling short of expectations; the development of new projects falling short of expectations; and declining profitability due to increased competition in the industry led to lower performance than expected.

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